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To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (62204)	8/10/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Fred, re: Asia I found it interesting that in Intel's 1997 Annual report they projected 1998 Asia Geographic share would drop from 19% to 8%, Y/Y. intel.com Did Intel already factor in the Asian flu at that early date? They also show significant increase in NA share, Y/Y.

To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (62204)	8/10/1998 11:09:00 AM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 186894

Fred, re: <I see a future where virtually everyone banks via computers, shops via computers, researches via computers, entertains themselves via computers, communicates via computers, etc.> I agree totally with this opinion. But if I look at the NA market, (which has the most data available), I can draw some conclusions. (Also, NA represents the major geographic share for Intel). In the consumer segment, just about everyone who will avail themselves of these services already has a PC. From this assumption I conclude that the market for this segment is mainly upgrades. I also conclude that these services don't require a lot of power. I also assume that the 50+% of the consumers that don't have a PC are probably in the lower income segment. Many of these potential users probably recognize the need for PC literacy, but my guess is they are prime candidates for sub-0's. I think the makers also have recognized this and that's the major driving force for sub-0's. As these services drive the future need for the PC in this segment I think the sub-0's will dominate and continue to grow major market share. The question becomes, "what does this do to the product mix, and what is the impact on revenues, earnings and margins"? As for the business segment, surveys show that this market is saturated, with about 1.1 PC's per desk worker. From this I conclude this is also an upgrade market. I've seen data that indicates sub-0's are growing market share in this segment. Many of the top tier companies offer Celeron, (and soon Celeron-A and even K6-2), for this segment. For the bulk of applications these PC's are more than sufficient. If upgrades are the ever more powerful cheap PC's, what does this do to the industry? Currently the PC segment represents ~80% of Intel's revenues. If there is a major shift to low-end PC's I have to conclude that revenues, earnings and margins will be impacted. In the near term, what is the impact of Xeon on the market? If the makers and users are in the process of switching to Xeon, what impact does this have on PPro? Can Xeon offset the conversion in Q3? How does this impact near term performance? Quite frankly, if the analysts don't downgrade the consensus, I look for a warning this quarter. Just my opinion, (and it won't be shared by anyone on this thread), but wait till the quarterly report before you trash me. ;-)