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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom who wrote (2043)	8/10/1998 4:48:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Goldman Sachs have revised down their 1998 China GDP forecast to 7.6% from 8.2%. Clearly, this is a little late in the day for such downgrades but Goldmans has at least two reasons why it will never be too negative about China. One, because it plans to earn a huge amount of money in corporate finance there over the next few years (it led the China Telecom issue last year) and two because their economist, Fred Hu, is very close the Zhu (almost an adviser if you believe Goldmans).

To: Tom who wrote (2043)	8/10/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2951

Tom, what surprises me about Zhu is the fact that his political clout is still highly dependant on Jiang. So far I have not read many outright attack on his policies but he is threatening a lot new fat cats of China on the top and a lot of too be laid off civil servants at the bottom. With so many enemies, I suppose some would like to see him fall. Being a somewhat closed system, China in theory have some options available without devaluating the RMB. They can look like the hero by not devaluating or make Japan the goat if they do. tom, the growth rate of 8% is a pipe dream. My bet is it will be substantially lower, even though the world may never know the real number. There are a lot of assets for sale in Asia. Goldman Sachs, ML, GE Cap etc are sharks off the coast now. Just like the "advice" they gave the Bush administration during the RTC era, the skeptic side of me always wonder whose interest they have in heart. Ramsey