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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (22735)	8/10/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: Joe Sabatini	Respond to of 70976

Sucker's rally...real rally...who knows? In my opinion, though, the recent run-up has been driven more by greed (why we're all in it in the first place) than by fundamentals. I agree that AMAT will come through the SEA crisis better than the rest, but it is still too premature to start celebrating. We still don't know if China and others will devalue their currencies. As Tom Costello on CNBC said this morning, if that happens we will be looking at a "global nightmare". Joe S.

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (22735)	8/10/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

OT/OT The line of reasoning here sounds much like the reasoning used on the SEG thread when the stock traded in the low 40's. Today SEG is ~ 23. Or did the mindless cheerleaders bail out at 18? ;-) [eom]

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (22735)	8/11/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

JeffreyD, suckers rallies are tough... they require a continuous string of suckers to buy on upward trail that is perceived to be leading toward a cliff... wouldnt it be wiser to allow such a suckers rally to stall, then short it? this rally has been meagre for AMAT, much greater for NVLS (in % terms)... based on spontaneous combustion with tons of guesswork analysis, whorish cheerleading, lowered earnings, warnings by AMAT itself, and good cause for downgrades... ever wondered why a house lowers earnings then does not downgrade??? you are the one buying the vapor... if you profit, feel as good as a dumb but successful thief... if Teri and others profit from declines in line with deteriorating fundies, she can feel as good as a violin player who plays the same song twice and if some stay on sidelines while this stabilizes, then they are the wisest of us all !!! I agree this is or was a suckers rally... I believe houses sold millions of equip shares, knowing from their Asian offices how bad it is GOING to get... what does your Asian office say? / Jim Willie