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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12946)8/10/1998 1:48:00 AM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 23519
 
<<Bottom Line: For Vivus to move up...something big has to happen...very soon.>>

Assuming that this statement is valid, what exactly is your definition of "big"?

A buy out?

Announcement of a domestic partner?

Viagra is pulled or at least restricted?

And what is your definition of "fast"?

One day?

One week?

One month?

Longer?

If we assume that Vivus uses the time line and plan already announced then we should expect no more than an announcement of a domestic partner by years end. I believe that Vivus management prefers a domestic partner over a buy out for several reasons:

1)A domestic partnership will help increase domestic script numbers by effectively marketing use of MUSE by the primary care physicians and thus increasing profitability.

2)With the current stock price extremely depressed, negotiating a favorable buy out price will be more difficult than waiting for the company to return to profitability.

3)After restructuring, Vivus has significantly decreased its cost burdens. Also, the new factory will significantly decrease production costs and thus increase profit margins.

4)IMO management believes that sooner or later, the Viagra safety issues will restrict sale to "at risk" patients which will increase the MUSE client base.

5)International sales have hardly begun. It's a big world out there and even with Viagra the ED pie is big enough for Vivus to have a significant piece of it.




To: BigKNY3 who wrote (12946)8/10/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Bradpalm1  Respond to of 23519
 
BigKNY3,

Excellent, thoughtful, balanced analysis (as always).

Bradpalm1