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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaiS who wrote (12950)	8/10/1998 8:31:00 AM
From: Mkilloran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Dias...I think your assumption that the UK will be the only big market open before the end of the qtr is NOT VALID. Have you talked with anyone at Janssen????

To: DaiS who wrote (12950)	8/10/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: betty moyers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

DiaS, Here are my views from what has been presented so far 1) There is absolutely no reason to believe that the UK is the only overseas market of any substance in the 3 rd quarter. You had a conversation with an Astra gentleman who only updated events as of the end of June - that's end of Q2. He gave you no real input on Q3 at all . Whether that is because he is not privy to that information or is not giving it out is all that is not known. Thus far I have seen absolutely zilch on how the International market is fairing this Q. 2) As I pointed out in a previous message, Vivus sells its product Intl to Astra and Janssen. They do not sell to the Intl market themselves. They are the Manufacturer. Therefore, it is of no consequence to Vivus earnings in Q3 whether Astra and Janssen sell even one unit of MUSE. It is of course critical to future earnings that the market grow. The record that Astra has already made indicates that will happen. We seem to know far less about Janssen. I know they were in the Phillipines months ago. Our assumtion that UK is getting essentially all the product now, says Janssen has done nothing. I think we are wrong. We just don't have the facts. 3) My projection of Q3 earnings is indeed based on production and sales to partners not on market growth. For Q3 and Q4 production and sales to partners is all that matters as they fill the pipelines. Now starting sometime, possibly Q1 99 market growth comes into play for continuing sales. Of course that market growth is going on even as we sit and wait now, but earnings are not yet dependant on it. So at a point in the future for continued earnings and earnings growth demand and production must coorelate. 4) I have come to realize that it is very difficult to distinguish between new and repeat users. Total scripts seem really to be all that really matters (6units per script regardless is close to reality). We have definately seen a leveling off in US scripts. Of significance would be an indication of growth in scripts. The US market is not as critical as it used to be. The international scene is really more important but we can't get a view on it. 5) The company is being very very tight lipped right now. Possibly because of the past lawsuits on the stock runnup. Until some information is forthcoming (which may not be until Q3 earnings report in early October) we have a cloud over the stock. Only if some announcement was made concerning gene therapy or marketing partner or Viagra really in market trouble, would we have a positive price environment.