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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (23811)	8/10/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Donald; I don't doubt we could see a surge, but the negative tick has just been to persistent this morning for me to think the that there won't be distribution into any surge, I'll give it a day or two and maybe try the MDY next time. For the time being I can read more of Lindgergh without haveing to watch the market. Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (23811)	8/10/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Jurgen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

ref: surge - from midday musing: ...Amid the morning softness in major indices and another weekend of worry-warting by the pundits on TV and in the dead-tree press, comes a far different outlook at Liquidity Trim Tabs. In a report titled Huge Cash Buildup Augurs For Explosive Rally - Soon, Charles Biderman, president of the firm, argues that a huge cash buildup augurs for an explosive rally, possibly soon (these titles we hold to be self-evident). Specifically, Trim Tabs says "cash has been building up all the while the market has been falling," estimating the equity market's net liquidity rose $822 million for the week ended August 7. Additionally, Biderman notes corporate investors have "started buying and stopped selling"; the IPO pipeline is starting to dry up before coming to a "full stop" in the week before Labor Day; and, perhaps most importantly, "corporate America is continuing to reduce the float of shares available." There have been $8.4 billion in cash takeovers in the past three weeks, not including AlliedSignal's (ALD:NYSE) $9 billion hostile offer for AMP (AMP:NYSE), according to the report. "Any kind of a spark could set off at least a 10% recovery bounce and maybe even take the good old Dow 20% higher to 10,000 before this next run ends. Unless of course some bad economic news from Asia continues to scare portfolio managers and has them keep on selling," Biderman wrote. "There is just so much cash around that if stock prices drop some more, cash takeovers of public companies and stock buybacks should soar, breaking the back of any steep decline." "What could end this bull market..is either rising interest rates, a dollar plunging against the [mark] and yen and falling earnings," he said. "Since none of those three are present, our guess is that soon, whether today or next week, stocks will pop, big time." ...