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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6478)	8/10/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Tell you the truth Steve, I'd love to see it go down from here. Given all the reasons I've seen for it tanking, a lower price equates to a better price.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6478)	8/10/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 22640

I had not seen this while away last week. Here are 3 prominent points to mull as TBR is below 100: (1) ''A new stage is coming. Latin America is going to attract a lot of direct investment, and the big destinations are going to be Brazil and Mercosur,'' he said. (2) ''For the next year, (GDP) will begin to grow much more rapidly at 4.5 percent,'' he said, attributing the expected rise to a healthier outlook in Brazil and an increase in capital inflows in Latin America, especially in Brazil. (3) ''Brazil is beginning to recover more than anything because the elections will be over, confidence will return to the markets and investment will be the motor of growth,'' he said. LatAm to grow 2.8 pct in '98, 4.5 pct in '99 -WDR SANTIAGO, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Latin America's growth in gross domestic product is set to slow to 2.8 percent in 1998 due to the Asian crisis but then pick up to 4.5 percent in 1999 on renewed investment, a top analyst at Warburg Dillon Read said Tuesday. ''Last year the region grew 5.2 percent, and this year it is expected to be 2.8 percent with a tendency to be perhaps a little lower,'' Walter Molano, executive director of WDR's Latin American Economic and Financial Research, told reporters while in Chile. ''For the next year, (GDP) will begin to grow much more rapidly at 4.5 percent,'' he said, attributing the expected rise to a healthier outlook in Brazil and an increase in capital inflows in Latin America, especially in Brazil. ''Brazil is beginning to recover more than anything because the elections will be over, confidence will return to the markets and investment will be the motor of growth,'' he said. Brazilians vote on October 4 to elect a president, state governors and representatives and a large part of the national Congress. Growth has slowed this year because less money is pouring into the region, he said. Net inflows of private capital to Latin America totalled $91.1 billion last year and will slip to $71.7 billion this year but rebound to $82 billion in 1999, he said. ''A new stage is coming. Latin America is going to attract a lot of direct investment, and the big destinations are going to be Brazil and Mercosur,'' he said. He was referring to the trade bloc that groups Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay and has Chile and Bolivia as associate members. As a sign of the capital inflows to come, Molano pointed to last week's $19 billion privatisation of Brazilian telecommunications concern, Telebras (TBR - news; TELB4.SA).