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To: Jerome who wrote (3048)8/11/1998 4:37:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5482
 
on Barton Biggs
in April97 he said long bond yield (then 7.0%) would rally until end of year... Jan98 bond yield was 5.9% give or take... he was right

in Feb98 he said S&P in Q2 would come nowhere near the rosey estimates of 9-10% earnings growth estimates at that time, and second half of year would show widespread flattening of earnings growth in US large caps... Q2 coming in at 2% after continuous stream of lowerings, Q3 maybe worse... he was right

Biggs is an equities strategist, not tactician... he calls longterm trend changes... he thought the shift would come in midyear... he was right

Biggs is one of 4-5 big voices I listen to... he is not always right though... I find it curious that many people whose opinions I respect dont find Biggs's views of value

so what next? retest of 14 lows... that was fun up there in 17 with the rarified air... anybody have the spine to admit buying over 17?

/ Jim Willie