To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (57420 ) 8/11/1998 8:43:00 AM From: rudedog Respond to of 176387
Chuz - Rudedog made a comment in an earlier post that needs correcting. He said that Compaq could manufacture computers -- particularly servers -- at a lower cost than Dell. I'm sorry, but there is no data to substantiate that claim. Compaq can undoubted purchase parts and components at lower cost, but Compaq's higher inventory carrying costs more than make up for this. On a percentage basis it seems to me that Dell's COGS is lower than Compaq's. Considering the fact that Compaq has relatively high margined server offerings seems to me to be a juicy target for Dell, given their obvious cost advantages. I think clarification of my point is in order. First, from my original post - CPQ can subsidize portions of the hardware side of this plan through service revenues, which has been a staple of high end account control for at least the last 30 years. Even if CPQ's costs are the same or even higher than Dell's, they could sustain a low end strategy that underpriced Dell in HW if the overall sale contained service components that offset the loss in HW margins. This is a completely legitimate strategy. CPQ has done this before. In 1992-93, CPQ discovered that server margins were declining a little as some others got into the game, but margins on disk drives were still high, partially because CPQ had a significant advantage in disk drive reliability in the field over other vendors, due to patented engineering advantages like prefailure analysis that identified faulty drives before they failed, and hot plug spares, which rebuilt a new drive on-line and transferred operations to it before the failing drive caused a problem. BTW CPQ still has this advantage, it is one of the reasons they outsell everyone but IBM in multivendor storage. CPQ increased margins on storage subsystems and decreased them on base servers. Overall margins stayed healthy and CPQ was able to maintain a price advantage against competitors. I also said:CPQ can also put Dell into a 2-front battle by expanding their low end offerings. This creates price pressure on the lower end of Dell's lines (as it has already started to do). CPQ has already demonstrated their ability to make money in that space, so this is not a loss leader for them, but it might be for Dell. CPQ has not done a sub-1K server, but I have heard rumblings that they plan on doing direct sales of low end servers. It would not be much of a stretch for them to create server offerings that looks a lot like Dell's, at a lower price point, to deny Dell sales in the server markets where the service component is not valued as greatly. CPQ has demonstrated that if they can define a market where large numbers of virtually identical machines can be produced in volume and turned over quickly, they can use economies of scale to get lower percentage COGS and maintain margins at low prices. This is an area where they have an advantage against Dell as long as forecast is less than or equal to demand. Consumer group has done well with this strategy. If CPQ succeeds in defining a server market in this space and executes cleanly, Dell will not be able to mach them with current business practice. I agree 100% that this strategy falls apart if CPQ does not maintain low or no inventory on these lines. They have managed to do this in consumer group but not yet on the commercial side. But it seems to me that Dell can not count on CPQ failing to execute - long term, betting that the other guy will screw up is not a winning strategy, and it is not how Dell has won in the past.