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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: H James Morris who wrote (11072)8/10/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: MileHigh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13594
 
Rumor that AOL will buy LCOS!? Read it on the YHOO thread, take it for what it is worth, but notice the big blocks in AOL in the final minutes....We'll see

MileHigh



To: H James Morris who wrote (11072)8/14/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: Mick Mørmøny  Respond to of 13594
 
More Relevant:
The Real Score For Top Web Sites

fnews.yahoo.com

AOL (NYSE:AOL - news) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - news) may be in shouting distance of Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO - news) in user count in the global worldwide Web wars according to an exclusive unduplicated unique users number crunch we asked research firm Relevant Knowledge to run for us.

Rolled Up Tallies
July

Overall Leaders
Users

Top Web Sites
(millions)

Yahoo!/Four11
26.6

Microsoft.com/HotMail/MSN
24.1

AOL.com/Mirabilis-ICQ
23.9

Infoseek/Disney/ABC/Starwave
18.8

Lycos/Tripod/Angelfire/WhoWhere
18.5

Netscape.com
17.6

Excite/Webcrawler/Magellan
17.3

GeoCities
14.2

TOTAL
161.1

AVERAGE
20.1

data courtesy of Relevant Knowledge


The data also confirmed our hunch that the combined Infoseek-Disney-ABC-Starwave (NASDAQ:SEEK - news) and Lycos-Tripod-WhoWhere-Angelfire (NASDAQ:LCOS - news) user tallies rank higher than Wall Street recognizes--yet.

The unduplicated tally shows that Microsoft is a clear second when counting its total Web presence including HotMail-MSN. As we told the Wall Street Journal the other day with Microsoft's new MSN as portal debuting soon we see Microsoft making a run for number one. Yet the best laid plans of mice and MSN....

If not for the Department of Justice scrutiny Microsoft may already have bought its way to that slot. It's 2.5 million users or a top 30 to 40 Web site acquisition--a $50 million buy--from being there.

One notable point on Microsoft-HotMail-MSN is the overlap of users or duplicated reach: 10.8 million of the same users. Usually when acquiring eyeballs you want a new pair, not the ones already gazing at your shelves.

That's an unseen benefit of Disney-Infoseek, the numbers Relevant Knowledge gave us showed just 3 million duplicated users, meaning it was an eyeball bonanza that investors may benefit from.

SEEK is a Disney Internet unit tracking stock to reiterate our view. Said another way, forget about Infoseek the sleeper stock that came late to the search engine party on Wall Street two years ago. Wipe the slate and what do you think Disney's Internet presence could be worth as a tradable instrument. It may be right there in SEEK.

Now that GeoCities has "GeoCurrency" to spend (its common stock) we foresee it buying users. Why do users matter? They are the heart of commerce. No users? then no ads or marketing dollars.

Our ultimate valuation of any Web site or effort relies on the lifetime value of the user (as customer). That translates into discounted cash flow and earnings and company/site valuation privately and publicly. Expect a lot of twisting and shouting soon among the bunch.