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To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (6949)8/10/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: JACK R. SMITH JR.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14226
 
Richard,

There are numerous techniques to keep out of that kind of scenario. Some are quite simple, and I know that you know them, but sometimes we forget. The first is have an upward bias in an uptrending market. Conversely, trade short in a downtrending market. The trend of this maket is clearly down! You might argue with that, but that is the way I see it here. It could change tomorrow. Further complicating that are the facts of "sector markets".

Simple trendlines are often overlooked in our "high tech supermultiple indicator world". Multiple time frames are also very, very useful. Monthly, weekly, daily, intradaily, etc.

Why am it telling you this, you are probably a much better trader than I am. I will shut up!!

Regards, Jack (notsuchagoodatraderbuttaperhapsinthefuture)



To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (6949)8/11/1998 1:46:00 AM
From: Jeff Williams  Respond to of 14226
 
Richard: I agree with Jack in the post below. Do not become married to a position at this time in the market, There is a lot of denial out there, on CNBC, MSNBC and the like. No one wants to face the fact were are in a major correction/bear market. The bottom is not close to here, in my opinion. However, I don't think the beaten-down "pennies" will suffer much if they can show a profit, because then the shorts have to contend with the possibility of buy-backs.

As far as the Dow, S&P and NYSE are concerned, I'm looking at down another 5-10% minimum. This is just my opinion, but it's nice being a short for a change. The call options are paying off nicely. I think I've sold 13 calls this past month. Mostly they are down to the minimum before expiring worthless.

By the way, I see a 1-2 day rally starting tomorrow, and lasting through Wed. or Thurs. morning, and then another break down. I'm guessing we'll be down 20% from the index highs within 2-3 months.
Just MHO, of course.

Regards,

Jeff