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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patrick tang who wrote (14143)	8/10/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Patrick: You hit the nail on the head. If we have utter chaos in SEA, then LSI will be a poor short-term bet. But if we have further chaos in SEA, the entire US market will be a poor short-term bet as we will see negative growth projections for '99. But even with this chilling scenario it will be the semiconductor stocks that will be the first to rebound. I have no doubt that LSI could go lower, but I have always felt that if one buys within 10 percent of the bottom of a stock, then one has made a superior investment. This compares to a trade where 10 percent losses are unacceptable. Will the next move up on LSI be a "hype" move? Without a doubt. Semiconductor bull moves always begin as "hype" moves, but the hype move that endures is the one that is followed by solid visibility. If you wait for confirmed visibility in semis, you might lose 30 to 40 percent of the initial up move. It seems to me that timing the market on the basis of a confluence of hypotheticals to the downside can be awfully painful at these levels. The risk reward is clearly skewered to the upside at these prices, and timing a future purchase for the long-term at these levels can be very foolish. My approach at a level like today's is to ask myself what position would I want to be in if I could not change that position in 6 months. Neutral? Long? Short? It's a no brainer. Long on LSI is the superior investment.

To: patrick tang who wrote (14143)	8/11/1998 12:23:00 AM
From: Hightechhooper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Patrick, They don't need the capacity. They could use their new 8 inch R&d line to get another 500 wafers per week and / or they have an established relationship with chartered semi. They committed to the fab when they thought there would be more growth. The growth is not there now. Q4 is full of risk, therefore it is best to wait until the risk is reduced to get long IMO. Good luck to you, but one thing you'll find with this stock is that management is always optimistic and rarely right. They are misleading you about Q4, it will not be good.