To: Broken_Clock who wrote (49638 ) 8/11/1998 4:16:00 AM From: donald sew Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58727
INDEX UPDATE -------------------------------- Per my earlier posts, the prime time for a top to occur for this immediate upswing after the dump is TUE/WED. If the market does not move higher and starts reversing from the 8600 range that is a not a good sign. Right now my short-term technicals are smack in the middle, and as I have always said this is the time that the market is the most susceptible to news items/fundamental changes. If we head down right now, which is possible in light of Asia's bad performance last night, then it would be another negative signal since the market never got to the overbought range per my short-term technicals. Another way to explain it is to make a comparison to the strong runup in JAN-MAR. During JAN-MAR, I never got a buy signal since the market never got to oversold, and everytime I got a sell signal, it worked, but the ensuing pullback was in the 50-150 point range, and in some cases only an intraday dip. Are we going to see the same in reverse, that my short-term technicals will not get to overbought. In other words - 1 step up, then 2-3 steps down. For the immediatcy, if the DOW cant hold 8600 intraday, that would be a good technical hint that this short-term upswing is over, and that a retest of the recent lows at 8362 will be probable and very soon. For the purpose of comparison - after the OCT dump, the DOW regained about 70% within 6 days. If we head down now, we would be no where close to OCTs, after-the-dump performance. NOT GOOD. If this upswing is over now, then the probability that we will break the recent lows at 8362 is increasing. With the bad news/performance coming out of Asia last night, today may be the day to initiate PUTs at the highs of the day. There is also a chance that today is down and tomorrow is up. Regardless, we should start heading down before the end of the week. For the short-term option traders, initiating puts may not be all that easy if we dont get that nice pop creating a clearer sell signal. My previously posted schedule is still on target so far.