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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: set who wrote (23862)	8/11/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: jef saunders	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

2am - hong kong down 193 points ... japan down 287 points here comes the Big Klunk !

To: set who wrote (23862)	8/11/1998 2:31:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

The russell is already 20% off its highs and about 50% off the S&P as it has been lagging for years, lots of speculative fluff has been beaten down (see FED, SJW) the microcap banks doubled in the last year after doing nothing for the last 20 . So I think if the RUT takes off it will be a few select issues and chasing of dividend yield....but I don't see it happening until a kahuna comes by and the dipsters feel it's safe to come back. You might keep an eye peeled on these microcaps for their direction: GOSHA, NRVH, SWS, CPN. If these give up, especially the first two, we're in recession city.

To: set who wrote (23862)	8/11/1998 7:18:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 94695

set: I agree, RUT has already had its blow off high! It IS in a down market! Its momentum top was in the Oct 97 run up, followed by a blow off price top in April 98 with much less momentum! BWDIK Regards, LG

To: set who wrote (23862)	8/11/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Set; April 20, I posted some bad news in respect to what I saw early April, and insisted a down trend had started. Then after that money flowed to the Nifty Fifty, and pushed Up the S&P. That had an effect of making the over all market more narrow, but also more liquid, Try to picture this last down from July16 trend IF the small caps had not already retracted. It would have been a lot faster and harder than it has been. Another thing that shows up in the indexes, and generally makes the small caps look more negative than they are, is when the ones that do go up, hit a certain level they lose small cap status. So the real winners in that market cap sector pass on out of it, were in the S&P that don't happen. This alone will give the RUT and 600 a long term under perform status , if you could also track the number of buy outs that may reveal more. At any rate because of the nature of indexes , comparing them is not always apples to apples, the S&P500 index has a built in advantage, as even if a stock passes to the 100, it still stays in the 500, this is not the case with small or mid caps, as one of them pass on up, it just vanishes from the index thus reducing the gains that index can make, but still letting the down side roll. Jim