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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19245)	8/11/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Q...flight to quality in the US GOV'IES?? Where else to hide?? Seems the test of the lows in the SPX is holding for now... 8/11/98 Q: What happens under the following conditions: 1: Nikkei makes a fresh 1-month low 2: Nikkei is down 5 days in a row 3: Dollar-Yen is more than 1% above its 50-day average. A: Under these conditions, the yield on the ten year note falls over 20 basis points, on average, in 78% of 14 past occurrences. Let variable values: theSec = USNOTE10Y Date Day 1 12/10/1973 Mon -0.04 07/08/1975 Tue -0.03 10/20/1976 Wed 0.07 11/17/1976 Wed -0.18 10/22/1979 Mon -0.18 03/10/1981 Tue -0.40 03/01/1982 Mon -0.18 03/17/1982 Wed 0.03 06/08/1982 Tue 0.23 08/10/1982 Tue -1.04 06/06/1983 Mon -0.04 04/02/1990 Mon -0.05 10/27/1995 Fri -0.10 10/25/1996 Fri -0.16 08/10/1998 Mon NaN Avg -0.15 AvgPos 0.11 AvgNeg -0.22 PctPos 21.43 PctNeg 78.57 Maximum 0.23 Minimum -1.04 StdDev 0.30 ZStat -0.50 Variance 0.09 15 Occurrences

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19245)	8/11/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Test of 1060---- To: +George Mc Geary (19244 ) From: +IQBAL LATIF Tuesday, Aug 11 1998 9:58AM ET Reply # of 19253 Look at action of major stocks and DJIA- the pits are at the other side of trade on opening- they are bidding at 1071 on opening so normally they would like to take it higher to 1080 -1082 area and will like to test 1060 the intraday lows of last week. Probably I still think that SPU test of 1060 will hold again today. Look also at Europe after being down heavily they are holding well rather well up from lows-- SOX and PSE is not showing any catastrophic opening, in circumstances like this I maintain that this is extreme fear the world is not falling apart. Russia is down cumulatively 19% so is China making a break below 200 Days MA but I see that this is not going to break DJIA until my core stocks start breaking- the speculators are fully invested they are trading instruments I am waiting for that break of core stocks until than pits will reign supreme. Watch out at 1080, if pits are able to take it up there.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19245)	8/14/1998 8:13:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Bhumbo is going to come like it came last time like a thief in the night from 990-1130 ------these very same guys look at them in Oct Dec were short... Know your facts before predicting ! Know your facts before predicting the trend silly- Put up bears or shut up M/s Kurlack- Ralph Accompora- the Bhumbo is going to come like it came last time like a thief in the night---- wait and see we will match your skepticism with facts- the markets based on facts never lose. It is self cooked formulas which take shorts to self destruction.. Idea was long and they were short---Day in day out we keep harping our same music-- don't listen to half facts-- listen to reason and logic-- once again we have seen that 1070 is pivot and all these 'prophets' of doom and gloom has to face another day of justifying the shorts-- may be this time a 'new relativity' is discovered but this market Idea will take it higher- the prophets of doom and gloom will loose because they make no sense- market is about facts and not ''I feel and I may be wrong or I may be right or market can be up or market can be down or side ways'' whichever side market goes these half heroes take credits. A typical audit of the prophets of doom and gloom half driven by CNBC the other half by fiction will show that trades are driven by events- I was long the trend on 1057 and I remain long the trend until the market and economy tells me otherwise--- if my CPI starts rising I will be concerned but Idea remains committed to facts, today or any time, new excuses will come but no one will ever ask why was the news planted yesterday at an opportune time by the Father of all shorts- to have level playing fields I have decided to play ''Bulls'' facts right up here-- today market has forgotten Yen-- it is down to 144.80 it will go up but just checking of rates by BOJ brought it down as speculators sold off heavy, these news are not printed but we sit with currency traders and we found out today morning-- it is a hide and seek game but you can only make money if medium term you are on the right side of the trade. An ordinary investor is milked and crucified by these ''hedge funds'' and no less effort is extended by our heroes driven by 'self made' half tried half failed models to extend a helping hand. These markets in my opinion represent the 'success' of Us model over any other state-- in Global Fortune five hundred if these half facts people want to listen US is right on top in terms of return on revenues. Aug 3 '1998- Fortune-- FORTUNE 500--- The global median on return on revenues is 3.2% The global median on change in revenue is .7% The global median of change in profits is 1.5% The global median of return on assets is 1.9% The global median on assets per employee is 442,785$ The US median on ''profits on returns'' of top 175 companies which are part of Global 500 is 246,134,200,000 on revenues of 3,977,510,000,000-- 246 billion on revs of 3.9 trillion $'s equal to 6.1 trillion $'s- twice the size of Global median of 3.2 %.. The Japanese companies make profits of 15,350,900,000 $'s on revenues of 2,963,428,800,000 $'s i.e. 0.51% median, it is this that we call Japan a 'bear market'. This is one comparison on all accounts US beat world averages hands down-- go US go-- these self deluded bears have nothing to loose but their $'s.. Know your facts before you write...