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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DJBEINO who wrote (2062)	8/11/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

DJ, Excellent summary. I might add that the Yangtze flooding will cause China to increase grain imports above projected levels. The losss of prime farmland from the floods is added to the poor crops due to the drought in South China. A devaluation would increase the cost of the imported grain. FWIW, Ron

To: DJBEINO who wrote (2062)	8/11/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: Beiming Wang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

All these are valid reasons. However, there is a limit to it. Once the Chinese anthority proceives that the cost/benefit analysis does not come out in their favor, things will change overnight. My main concern here is that there is no direct dialoge between the Chinese and the other financial institutions such as the G7 group, Fed Reserve or the MOF of Japan, as China is still viewed as an non-traditional partner for financial consultation on worldwide basis. I do think there is little, if not none, talk between the Chinese financial authority and the West on this critical devaluation matter. Lack of consultation at important junction moments like now could cause major miscalculations at the government levels. The consequense is beyond what we can know. Another troubling point is that the West leaders seldom touch this yuan devaluation matter as if this none of their business. Only private investors are more concerned with their own pocket money as we are in a truly global business. My conclusion: The major financial disasters of 1998 will be resulted from the lack of coordinations and consultations amongst governments in dealing with the crisis. We see the Chinese cry foe against Japan's inability and the US intervined once. I never see any serious and thourough discussion in public regarding how to include the Chinese into international community to prevent the crisis. If this crisis happens in Germany, it would cause a 5 star consultation long ago. Now the market implication spread from Asia to Europe to the US, it is probably too late to do something. I just wish the elected people on Capitol Hill in Washington stop name calling against China and start to do something responsible along with the Federal Reserve. Now!