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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30902)	8/11/1998 11:01:00 AM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

I've never played the aftermath of a devaluation wave, but you've got me interested in looking at value plays. One particular stock, VIP, which is an ADR for a rusky cellular/telecom darling.. is currently a great short prospect... but I think it might make a decent value play if russia does not blow up or if russia does blow up and all the panick sellers get knocked for a loop. My only concern would be if the company has debt denominated in hard currencies (marks,dollars,yen) and where are they getting their equpiment from (not russia obviously). Ideally, you'd find a solid company that sources inputs (including capital) from the domestic country and sells to whomever... What's some of your advice on picking up solid ADR bargains in post apocalyptic countries ? What do you look for? What are some of the red flags that keep you from investing in these (assume that the company is a solid, growing industry, and had been performing well prior to devaluation)? Finally, what are some sectors that typically do well (maybe exporters, what types of products?) following a deval???