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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (3703)	8/11/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Pete, I will not advise you. I will however tell you my logic for being mostly in cash and short this market. Far East situation deteriorating, not improving. So.Am. same. Europe could slow. US will slow beyond expectations embedded in current valuations. Further drops in US equities will slow consumer spending as over-confidence wanes. Fed will not inject money into system unless real meltdown occurs(-50%). Danger of huge dollar rally is that it can come down as fast too, to the benefit of the Euro eventually. For today, watch out for earlier-than-normal fund repositioning as most managers would request exemptions to last hour sales. I think we are only halfway done for today with the 200DMA on the SPX in jeopardy. Tonight I would look out for Japanese Yen intervention which will not succeed but only induce further uncertainty and volatility. Since the easier road from here is down, given profit taking on YTD trades and relief of uncertainty, lower is where we'll probably go IMHO. BIDKS.