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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (14151)	8/11/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Respond to of 25814

Owing to other considerations, I do not try to trade short term but rather look for stocks that I might want to hold over two year period and won't have to worry much if I don't look at it during that time. I like MU long term but not over $25/share for now - they are going to totally dominate the market at the next DRAM shortage. I'm in semiconductors, so I pretty much stick to what I know better of. I like Intel - they have so much horsepower going for them. Semis, even CPUs now, is as much a manufacturing game as well as design game. Intel is VERY good at manufacturing. By the time market for PC on a chip develops, they will dominate that too with their manufacturing. But like I said, the thing that scares me is the yen/China $ devaluation. China wants 8% yearly growth for the next two centuries and in Q2, they almost missed that because the Chinese $ is high after everybody in the FAR East devaluated. If Japan thinks they can export their way out of the problem by devaluating the yen, China will have no choice but to retaliate in kind and the whole thing will blow - with end result the US$ and big US stocks will be even higher when everybody in the world try to seek safe haven. But in that case, LSI will get knocked down like other small caps. If yen goes anywhere near 150/U$, watch out! I do not like IDTI myself - the whole thing depends on their ability on ramping 0.25um, and that a total coin toss, nothing to do with what I know about their products/markets. Everything that I had predicted on Winchip a year ago came true - minimum sales/profits at $45 per. I did toy with a short term play on SIII - their Savage 3D chip has great price/performance. But that went away when they needed to rev silicon to B rev and missed end of July/back-to-school delivery. By the time that chip comes out in one month, the sweet spot will be gone and they will be fighting with TDFX's Banshee, nVidia's TNT, Matrox G200 (first out the gate, I'm buying a board for personal use today), and ATI's next offering. patrick PS one last thing, by the time I cash on LSI in 3 years, I intend to reload by shorting the foundry guys (e.g. TSM/UMC). The Chinese are going to so overbuilt on foundries in 4 to 5 years it won't even be funny.