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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaveMG who wrote (4236)	8/11/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: Drew Williams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10852

Subject: Re: Loral Earnings Comments Date: 8/11/98 2:19 PM Eastern Daylight Time From: Readware Message-id: <1998081118190400.OAA02175@ladder01.news.aol.com> (1) The 2nd qtr net loss number is in line with the comments from the company in May; (2) From my estimates: (14 March 1998 as posted here: "At the beginning of 1998 Loral has 180 transponders generating an EBITDA/qtr going forward of 52.26 million")-- looks on track. There appears to have been a slight softness in VSAT services for Orion-- I say "appears"; (3) Company year-over-year revenue flatness-- the three Asia sats from last year. It appears (I say "appears") that Loral is taking one of those sats and reconfiguring them for Orion. The third sat they will probably be able to sell as L Star 2, and it does appear that ABCN does want to launch the other at some point. (4) Transponder pricing early in the 2nd qtr softened growth rate wise, and now appears to have picked up to a 3% year-over-year rate of increase. I have been at 7% 1998 over 1997. The transponder softness from Asia appears to have been offset by tightening of capacity here relative to the Galaxy and Echostar issue; (5) It appears that Skynet is taking business away from Intelsat. (6) It looks like the company has taken a lot of its Orion expensing in the second quarter; (7) It appears that Europe*Star will be expensed in FY 2000-- two buses. That would lower estimated FY 2000 net earnings (no affect on EBITDA). December is the time to look ag FY 2000 in somewhat greater detail-- with new sats in the air, etcetera. So, no surprizes in the report. The EBITDA growth rate is fairly close to what the company has stated it would be. For 1998 I am at revenues of $2.2 billion. So far we are at $717 million. In the next two quarters Loral is launching Telstar 6, Orion F3, and SatMex 5. The first two will increase the revenue number growth rate by about 45% from the current base going forward. SSL's bookings will determine how close the the $2.2 billion I predicted comes.