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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (7677)	8/11/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12468

Faster buildout - looking to build into 15 markets by EOY '98, versus original 10 (even though SOME were in print that the expectation was 12-14 and thought 17 was doable) and increased price targets. Legg Mason expects EBITDA breakeven by 2002 and for EBIT by 2003, accelerated by a year. Salient sections from LM Aug 7th TGNT research piece (analyst Danny Zito, who took over TGNT and WCII from Reagan, seems more to get HBW access): ------------ Industry Consolidation With recent merger and venture announcements, the pace of consolidation in the telecom industry remains brisk. The larger players (Regional Bell Operating Companies, Long Distance Companies) are attempting to secure valuable network assets before all the partners are gone. The Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) are seeking to increase their addressable markets to achieve better utilization of their high-fixed-cost fiber rings and local switching infrastructure, and to increase their attractiveness to larger players. In our judgement, broadband wireless technology effectively complements fiber-based CLEC architectures, enabling the CLECs to reach a broader addressable market than do fiber only networks. Recall that TCG, a fiber-based CLEC, acquired BizTel for its 38 Ghz licenses and was later bought by AT&T (T $58 1/4 O/2). Additionally, we believe this argument is enhanced by the fact that data services comprise the industry's fastest-growing revenue stream. Data requires bandwidth, and broadband wireless can deliver bandwidth economically to more customers than fiber solutions. Differentiation versus Winstar (WCII $30 M/4) Although we are bullish on the broadband wireless strategy as a whole, Teligent has some attributes that currently make it more attractive than Winstar, from our perspective. Teligent represents a pure-play point-to-multipoint shop. Working from a clean slate, Teligent has designed its operations around point-to-multipoint technology, primarily sourced and integrated by a single vendor. Thus, we expect Teligent to deploy rapidly and optimize its vendor structure at a later date, based on commercial experience with the technology. Despite Winstar's experience with broadband wireless, it is faced with the task of integrating the new point-to-multipoint technology into a network and systems originally built for point-to-point -- a task that is likely to be further complicated by Winstar's need to integrate equipment and systems from Lucent, Siemens, P-COM and Nortel. We believe this increases the operational complexity associated with an already complex and aggressive deployment plan. ----------------- Also, anyone else note the technical downgrade that SSB put out on WCII last Friday? From "lighten" to "sell", with 1st supports at 25-26, 2nd supports at 21-22. 1st resistance at 33-34 and 2nd resistance at 40-41. Note, this call is short term technical only and is NOT from Jack Grubman, who as a high profile fundamental analyst, maintains his WCII #1 buy rating and $64 EOY '98 price target)

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (7677)	8/11/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 12468

Bernard, It must be that Alex Mandl and others in his team have some serious supporters in the investment community. I have believed for some time that the LMDS principal was the way the phone industry was going to go and that when combined with convergence (computers, internet, video, movies on demand, tele-conferencing, television) that this technology would bring about the biggest change to all our lives since the invention of the phone or the automobile. It is also now becoming clear that WCII and TGNT have got hardware and software that works in the commercial environment having recnetly finished satisfactory testing. That being the case they will each be able to deploy this system across their licensed territories and as they do they each custommer and building they take on will effectively be removed from the population of customers and potential customers available to any other communications companies because all the new features are either best handled or alternatively exclusively handled by wireless. These cirncumstances are particularly unpleasant for the RBOCs, AT&T and TCI and Worldcom but then some of those companies have other profitable areas of the communications business to fall back on and sonme of them will either buy into wireless LMDS or they will sooner or later no longer be in the communications business. Regards, L