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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (5446)	8/11/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: gmccon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

A Chinese banker told me today that he believes China will have to devalue the yuan before its all over. Look at this: biz.yahoo.com From Japan's finance minister this evening. Insert head in sand and make statement to international press: "I don't think the dollar/yen rate is the cause of global stock price declines. Each country is grappling with its own problems, so it isn't appropriate to trace the source of all problems back to Japan." I told this story before, I believe, but the most popular movie in Japan when my wife and I passed through there in 1982, depicted the U.S. drawing Japan into WWII. The lines were wrapped around the theatres for days. Those complete and total boneheads could learn a lesson from now deceased, gangster rapper, 2Pak Shakur. "Keep it real" (explatives deleted). Personally, I think once the Asian recession bottoms next year, China will emerge and eventually eat Japan's lunch. The world will be a better place. I predict war in Asia in another 20 years. Japan and China. At the time Hong Kong becomes 100% Chinese, they will take Taiwan, too. In the process, they will truance non-nuclear Japan, with non-nuclear weapons, and all the rest of Asia (who had their butts kicked by Japan in WWII) will support China. It will be an Asian-thing, and the US will not be in a position to send it's sons to their death in a Gigantic Vietnam. Asia is Asia is Asia is Asia. They have their own, unspoken Monroe Doctrine, and it ain't none of the West's business.

To: Stitch who wrote (5446)	8/12/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Ron Bower	Respond to of 9980

Stitch, I'm probably biased, but the points made in your post about the yuan not being devalued are valid. China gains little and loses a lot from a devaluation and I can't see why economists, analysts, and pundits continue to speculate that it will. I'm just a midwest businessman and certainly no economist, but these things were obvious early in the discussion. Unlike most Asian economies, exports are not the basis for China. Yet, in spite of the overall reports, many of HK/China's exporters are doing very well. Companies like VTech and Jurong have reported good earnings growth. My primary holding, Deswell Industries, just reported 18% Q to Q growth, up from 14.6% prior Q, but down from the 48% for 1997. They'll improve this with the new tax incentives. As Japanese and other Asian companies seek creditor protection (Mita) or bankruptcy, these HK/China companies have the financial ability to grow and gain market share. FWIW, Ron