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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pz who wrote (27549)	8/12/1998 2:11:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

PZ; ...''proper perspective'' is the key to Oil prices ''temporarilly'' not being important.... Crude prices do not matter right now for a couple of reasons. First of all, crude isn't moving up or down too far or too fast. The OPEC production cut numbers have a big ''lag'' factor - this is why OPEC wants to wait to see what the supply numbers are in a month or two - because it is too early to even know to what degree the prior cuts worked. We are in a trader controlled market; artificial pressure can dramatically push prices downward. Nothing has fundamentally changed to not expect crude to recover to $15-16 this fall/winter and gradually rise to $16-17 by Q2 1999 and even perhaps $18 by Q3 next year. Because we have simultaneously experienced soft crude pricing along with an over all market selloff - we are fundamentally priced to where the street will come to the patch; does anyone think that the multiple millions of shares and tens of millions of dollars that flowed here last friday just fell out of a damn tree ? Where was crude pricing last friday ! - there was no negative or positive crude news...nothing had changed; as lots of big money had been watching the oversold/undervalued oil patch for some time. They only wanted a ''sign'' that NOW was the time to move... Acampora gave them one and it snowballed, many shorts covered and some managers made their big move. We have a huge pent up demand just waiting to flow into the patch. Todays technical double bottom off of low volume (in comparison to friday) was what many institutional traders were waiting for- we will see substantial sector rotation and buying support here. Timing is everything; and temporarially crude prices will take a back seat to value and the timing of this overall market correction/sell off.