Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6608)	8/11/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: space cadet	Respond to of 10921

I basically agree with most of what you said. Yes the upturn will be ferocious when it comes, as in previous cycles. However, my point was that the analysts who study these things are saying that at least the next 6 months and possibly the next 12 months are looking terrible. Now of course these analysts may be wrong- it certainly wouldn't be the first time. But if they are correct then I will stick by my 50% haircut prediction for most of these stocks. Even if people do stick with these stocks the institutions will not if the forecasts look correct, as we will know in the next 6 weeks with earnings warnings season soon here. Incidentally I should mention that so far in my career I am not a long term investor but more a several weeks or a few months type trader. In that time scale the direction definitely still appears down to me. I realize people will different timescales may come to different conclusions. As someone who played with the disk drive companies last year I know for a painful fact that these kind of companies can be unloved and unwanted for a long long time and still head lower. We shall see, but somehow I don't think I'd want to be holding these semi stocks come earnings season in Sept. To repeat if there is a bullish case for holding these stocks in say the next 3 months I'd love to hear what it is. So far all I hear is the sound of silence... PS I just heard about AMAT's conference call. It sounds like it might be a real bloodbath tomorrow, though next day reactions are tough to judge. I'll stand by my longstanding call of amat and nvls bottoming in the low 20's. That's where I'll look to go long on them, provided that the outlook is significantly better than it looks now. Sounds like even a year from now this asian flu might still be causing problems, but as a short term trader I don't like making such long term prognoses.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6608)	8/12/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

<<Calling the bottom for semi equips is always challenging >> I think it might be more accurate to say that "calling the point of reversal is challenging (impossible?). I don't see how the sector can get much lower absent a more serious decline in the world economy than anyone is now predicting. The western economies can pretty much sustain the current level of semi equipment bookings. (I know, famous last words.) You may disagree, but IMHO we are now close enough to the bottom to call it. To me, the question is how long it will last until the bookings trend reverses.