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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Step1 who wrote (1333)	8/12/1998 9:30:00 AM
From: DJRoss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Hej Stephan, Just had to poke my head in here, and when I read you post, I had to comment. I too live in a foreign country. I live in Sweden. I have also been a teacher here. I have lived in this country on and off for about 8 years, and I have to disagree with you in part. Cultural differences are as most things on many levels. It is easy to point out the turist in a crowd based upon more general differences. I banged my head against a wall for several years wondering why many of those I lived around and spent time with could not understand why certain things just didn't work ie political,economical and social views. Of course I was basing my arguments on my own cultural upbringing, and even though I had adapted to much of what was Swedish, there were still many layers or nuances that I had yet to reach. Most often we allow our view to cloud the issue at hand. How do Swedes,the French, or Japanese deal with their problems. On the surface we may feel we have a grip on how things work. Even when we have been around awhile to study the habits and behaviors of said peoples, we are still missing a large part of the whole picture. I have had the experience a living for a long time in Sweden. I am married to a Swede, and my children were born in Sweden. I still find myself at times missing a step here or there when faced with different issues. This I especially noticed when I began to teach the equivalent of Jr. High School students. The US media is telling us that many investors are jumping ship and that the markets are down because they do not feel that the Japanese are not taking the issue of their economic problems seriously enough. IMO, it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall of the leadership in Japan, to see how they react amongst one another concerning this problem. Then to fly over to each of these individuals homes and watch them when they are with family and especially when they are alone. To be able to read their thoughts. Getting that deep would definately make a different sort of headline. I would be more inclined to believe that the Japanese government is extremely serious about the problem, but that their ideas of how to go about solving it differ from Western views, which may lend itself to appearing nonchalant. Of course perception is a major factor in how markets react(key word "react") People read headlines and panic without caring one way or another about why. Just my two cents on a dime Dug

To: Step1 who wrote (1333)	8/12/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: FACTUAL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Thanks for the detailed response. Please accept my apology for a very poor selection of screen names. I do not currently live in Japan, but do spend half my time in Japan. My wife is Japanese and consequently listen to all the news and TV programs via satellite. I have found your views to be perceptive and thoughtful, as there are things to love about Japan without becoming an apologist. I am principally worried that if my assumptions are correct, the type of wholesale change required may take several years to effect, particularly in the large companies. As an anecdotal example, three weeks ago I was inspecting the market for residential property in Shinjuku, Shibuya, and Roppongi. While the prices have declined substantially ( currently about 60-100 million yen for two LDK ) they are still above the price required to clear ( the very substantial ) inventory. Thus the bank loans issue will get worse over time not better. From an investing perspective one can buy focussed ( essentially single product companies )that are internationally competitive and should benefit from potential yen declines ( what is the opposite of endaka?), but they tend to be in low growth markets. For example Toyota is absolutely world class ( and have about $30 billion in cash on the balance sheet ) so look like a good target for investigation, but the prospects for growth in the world auto markets are poor. Apart from borrowing in yen and investing in dollars ( something I do not like to do ) I am wondering what if any my investment strategy for Japan should be. I have not lived in Japan for about a decade but spent some of the roaring eighties in Japan. While I lived there I found an experience unmatched since and enjoy reading your perceptions, one that only a perceptive resident could note. ( I too tried to crystallize debate but was only succesful after a lengthy period of getting to know them and then only in yakkitoris or at karaoke )