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To: JHR who wrote (27557)	8/12/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: Jamey	Respond to of 95453

Another Viewpoint; "WHO SAYS WHAT? WHY DO THEY SAY THAT? WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Despite a steady decline in the market climaxing (for the moment) in a 300 point drop Monday, there still is and there always will be differences of opinion as to what is happening and where the market is likely to go from here. The first difference, of course, is an honest difference of opinion. This is the half-full/half-empty glass argument. What you see is your perception of what you see. We tend to see what we want to see. We seize on those facts that support our position and we tend to minimize or even ignore what is contradictory to our thinking. At the bottom of everything is the fact that everyone acts in what he or she perceives to be in his or her own self-interest. The concern for your interest is secondary at best and then only to the extent that it helps their interests. That's obvious you say? Of course it is! But I ask you then, why do we so eagerly slake our thirst to peer into the future by gulping down the opinions of putative market experts? Therefore, the first reason to disregard opinions as to the market is that they may not be unalloyed in their purity. The second reason to be skeptical about market forecasts is even more compelling. Nobody knows what the future holds. Nobody. Not the people who support our opinions, not the people who disagree with us. Neither Abbey Joseph Cohen nor Ralph Acampora, not markets fundamentalists nor market technicians. Nobody actually knows where the market will be next month or next year. Nobody. It is my own belief that supply and demand tell you everything you need to know as to what is happening to a stock, a mutual fund or the market, itself. Every analyst's opinion and every investor's decision are embedded their prices. Follow the money and disregard opinions as to the future. What is happening is all we really know. My data tells me that the market continues to weaken not just Monday but week after week after week. Just remember that when your beloved mutual fund or stock drops 20%, it must recover 25% for you just to break even. And your problem is compounded by the fact that you don't know if your investment will go down further or how long it will wallow in a trough or when or how quickly it will recover. Time is a function of performance measurement and the older you are, the less time is your friend. As LaRouchfoucauld said, "We all have the strength to bear the misfortune of our neighbors." Nobody is concerned about your money as much as you are. Be careful. Have a profitable week!" Phil Hillman Publisher, The Pragmatic Investor