IKE says it best.. You see shorting is a destructive mentality, make money by destroying what hard work created. To do so needs a destructive personality as well. Which is why most people find it hard to short. Even though you make money much faster than buying stock. You lie to make others buy from you and later you lie even more to cause fear and sell back to you at a lower price. Through out history those few who were against society and growth always made out a lot better than the hard working folks, they did not care who one hurt or who suffered as long as they and their minions lived well. These days they have the stock market among other things to make money much easier.
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Cool head- a realistic approach and defined targets is the only way to deal in voltality and correcting markets.
Out of many ways to predict a market move-- the bears have a unique 'voodoo' system. A mongrel cross between news exploitation and throwing various technical interpretations. Comparing markets and ''Presidentials" up and downs, looking for that 750 point move to come or the big ''25%'' move 2000 point drop equivalent to the famous 1987 Oct single drop! Even putting in 'Russian compulsive dependency on Vodka and its relationship to 21% cumulative decline of Moscow' and vows of ASEA and Continental Europe that big drop eludes them.
They still don't see the big move which can take them through these supports- for them 'market can be up' or 'down' or 'can be anywhere' is the pet phrase- some specialists on wave theory talk of waves but look at DJIA 96-98 charts from July 96 onwards most of these waves theory specialists would find to their utter dismay that wave theory looks in gutter on that two years chart. Lot of waves and distinct peaks and troughs have come like March 97 peak, Aug 97 peak Sept 97 peak mini, May 98 peak July 98 peak along with these have come the troughs-- the April May 97 trough Oct 97 trough Feb 97 trough Jun trough and the one we are in. Any amount of wave theoretical explanations will not justify this huge trend up. Why should a bull market be characterized to keep making new highs on weekly basis this market is a realistic bull and shall not do that to the utter chagrin of bears.
To know if their predictions have ever worked look between the big moves up and look back at these perpetual bears, from Barton Biggs to Kurlack and lesser personalities on SI, you find them shorting on Oct-Nov 97 the move from 6900 to 9314, again a little while back when BKX took off they were shorting at 690-- it went up to 950 and when this mother of all moves composite bounce came from 1715 just a while ago from 200 days MA they were again short. Show me a short who has not missed the biggest opportunity to make money and was long in this move up and I will show you someone who has credentials to call this move down. Going by past record a classic short who never participated ''up'' will be wrong in his assessments for lows also.
This 'voodoo' system were looking for that big sell when the best buy hit the market on Friday- late yesterday as bears were being squeezed these 'voodoo' analysts threw in new interpretations of Nikkei breaking down for today which it did not neither 1060 or their so called support broke. It was anyway not about DJIA yesterday the real fight was in SPU-- I see with utter disgust this ''short'' approach-- ''be short within a best move up- keep their predictions flowing every day on a short side predicting a melt down, and any day when markets consolidate or correct heap on markets the nonsense of 'I told you so' forgetting that they also told us many other stories. Anyone who did not have the pleasure of owning CSCO at low teens will not realize that if it goes from 105 to 96 it is still nine time higher than the cost.
Let me inform the bears it is not the bears who are short it is the bull who are ''bears'' right now. This is a perfect legitimate move within a bull trend and this is the best possible thing happened to the market within this bull leg from 6900 to 9314, a retracement to this lower channel between 8499 and 8795 for a full one quarter will provide the strong fundamentals on which future earnings will propel this market forward. This channel you can trace it back to 7861 taking a cue from July low of 5400 in 96. The top of this channel is 9314. I will think that a second close below this level I have of 8499 would leave us open to move as low as 8228 but I will think we will see a move back above 8499, a single move within a bull leg on a negative sentiment day is non- confirmatory.
The basic premises of this market sell off is based on slowing momentum of corporate profits, the fact is far from reality if you wish to scratch surface a bit you would find that minus computers and peripherals the latest quarter had a after tax profits in excess of 5%.CPQ, MOT, GM AT&T, LU profits were down due to extra ordinary circumstances-- DEC was written off by CPQ- the Technologies and 29% drop of INTC profits reflected worst stage for semis, now AMAT last night earnings have put a damper on the thoughts of anyone who were writing off the Tech sector, this sector has the potential to improve its performance in next two quarters. The expectations have been lowered but don't forget we had 7% increase in top line revenues, according to me it is the revs increase I look at carefully, the top line. I expect that losses in computer peripherals, Oil and Gas, Electronics, semis , cars and Trucks will beat street last quarter expectations, we will in this quarter see consolidation at the lower end of this range that is between 8228 and 8795 even extending to 9106 but the building blocks of next move have to be secured before any move higher. Never be misled by analysts who look at numbers as a whole within these numbers I see enough of sectors which can come back very nicely.
A bear market is associated with falling consumer spending, failing banks, increasing bank defaults, rising inflation, and last but not least a bond market which reflects all this a bear market has one strong features the yields are not falling they are rising. In case of US it is not the deflationary situation economists are worried about it is the inflationary threat- even that little inflation in the system provides the kicks which corporate profits do need a zero inflationary society like Japan has its own problems. Is this a bubble about to burst they told me that at 5400 than at 6400, as late as Oct 97 at 6900 they wanted the market to be at 4000, anyone seriously investing the markets know that like the previous arguments these are also based on assumptions which will not hold, the US economy is in robust form, the banking system is not exposed to hilt in ASEA and the asset bubble is not their to be busted. This note to the thread is part of my effort to explain my mind set, my basis of projections and how I define certain issues concerning a move up or down. It is important for a someone who has assumed the mantle of writing on thread to make his bias clear.
Out of many ways to predict a market move-- the bears have a unique 'voodoo' system. A mongrel cross between news exploitation and throwing various technical interpretations. From ''Presidential up and downs! Russian compulsive dependency on Vodka and its relationship to 21% cumulative decline and vows of ASEA and Continental Europe , all in one way or the other are core arguments of shorts. They still don't see the big move which can take them through these supports- for them 'market can be up' or 'down' or 'can be anywhere' is the pet phrase- some specialists on wave theory talk of waves but look at DJIA 96-98 charts from July 96 onwards most of these waves theory specialists would find to their utter dismay that wave theory looks in gutter on that two years chart. Lot of waves and distinct peaks and troughs have come like March 97 peak, Aug 97 peak Sept 97 peak mini, May 98 peak July 98 peak along with these have come the troughs-- the April May 97 trough Oct 97 trough Feb 97 trough Jun trough and the one we are in. Any amount of wave theoretical explanations will not justify this huge trend up. Why should a bull market be characterized to keep making new highs on weekly basis this market is a realistic bull and shall not do that to the utter chagrin of bears.
To know if their predictions have ever worked look between the big moves up and look back at these perpetual bears, from Barton Biggs to Kurlack and lesser personalities on SI, you find them shorting on Oct-Nov 97 the move from 6900 to 9314, again a little while back when BKX took off they were shorting at 690-- it went up to 950 and when this mother of all moves composite bounce came from 1715 just a while ago from 200 days MA they were again short. Show me a short who has not missed the biggest opportunity to make money and was long in this move up and I will show you someone who has credentials to call this move down. Going by past record a classic short who never participated ''up'' will be wrong in his assessments for lows also.
This 'voodoo' system were looking for that big sell when the best buy hit the market on Friday- late yesterday as bears were being squeezed these 'voodoo' analysts threw in new interpretations of Nikkei breaking down for today which it did not neither 1060 or their so called support broke. It was anyway not about DJIA yesterday the real fight was in SPU-- I see with utter disgust this ''short'' approach-- ''be short within a best move up- keep their predictions flowing every day on a short side predicting a melt down, and any day when markets consolidate or correct heap on markets the nonsense of 'I told you so' forgetting that they also told us many other stories. Anyone who did not have the pleasure of owning CSCO at low teens will not realize that if it goes from 105 to 96 it is still nine time higher than the cost.
Let me inform the bears it is not the bears who are short it is the bull who are ''bears'' right now. This is a perfect legitimate move within a bull trend and this is the best possible thing happened to the market within this bull leg from 6900 to 9314, a retracement to this lower channel between 8499 and 8795 for a full one quarter will provide the strong fundamentals on which future earnings will propel this market forward. This channel you can trace it back to 7861 taking a cue from July low of 5400 in 96. The top of this channel is 9314. I will think that a second close below this level I have of 8499 would leave us open to move as low as 8228 but I will think we will see a move back above 8499, a single move within a bull elg on a negative sentiment day is non- confirmatory.
The basic premises of this market sell off is based on slowing momentum of corporate profits, the fact is far from reality if you wish to scratch surface a bit you would find that minus computers and peripherals the latest quarter had a after tax profits in excess of 5%.CPQ, MOT, GM AT&T, LU profits were down due to extra ordinary circumstances-- DEC was written off by CPQ- the Technologies and 29% drop of INTC profits reflected worst stage for semis, now AMAT last night earnings have put a damper on the thoughts of anyone who were writing off the Tech sector, this sector has the potential to improve its performance in next two quarters. The expectations have been lowered but don't forget we had 7% increase in top line revenues, according to me it is the revs increase I look at carefully, the top line. I expect that losses in computer peripherals, Oil and Gas, Electronics, semis , cars and Trucks will beat street last quarter expectations, we will in this quarter see consolidation at the lower end of this range that is between 8228 and 8795 even extending to 9106 but the building blocks of next move have to be secured before any move higher. Never be misled by analysts who look at numbers as a whole within these numbers I see enough of sectors which can come back very nicely.
A bear market is associated with falling consumer spending, failing banks, increasing bank defaults, rising inflation, and last but not least a bond market which reflects all this a bear market has one strong features the yields are not falling they are rising. In case of US it is not the deflationary situation economists are worried about it is the inflationary threat- even that little inflation in the system provides the kicks which corporate profits do need a zero inflationary society like Japan has its own problems. Is this a bubble about to burst they told me that at 5400 than at 6400, as late as Oct 97 at 6900 they wanted the market to be at 4000, anyone seriously investing the markets know that like the previous arguments these are also based on assumptions which will not hold, the US economy is in robust form, the banking system is not exposed to hilt in ASEA and the asset bubble is not their to be busted. This note to the thread is part of my effort to explain my mind set, my basis of projections and how I define certain issues concerning a move up or down. It is important for a someone who has assumed the mantle of writing on thread to make his bias clear. |
