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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (24031)	8/12/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, >>>>>>>>> If you look at VIX with a 5% KAGI plot, you see that the trend until Oct 1997 was UP, there was a "relief" rally and the the bears took over. Interestingly enough, the REVERSE has occurred... since late Oct, the trend has been down AND THEN we are in the middle of a relief sell-off. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< I dont have a KAGI plot so I dont see what you are seeing, but will not doubt it. Bill, as a technician I have made many mistakes by relying on one or a few indicators. I use up to 15 differenct indicators/processes, not to say thats the right way but I have noticed that the more confirmation I get from different indicators the more accurate my analysis becomes. This is an extremely dynamic market so something that worked before may not work now. Right now it can easiliy be argued that we are changing to the downside. Whether it is or not the dynamics are changing strongly. I think this market is very hard to forcast and to call a strong reversal now or a big dump at this point - well lets just say I cant do it just yet. That is not to say that I am no longer bearish, just that I dont cant call a big dump just yet. My short-term technicals indicate that we are smack in the middle which means that the market can go in either direction. If the market heads up nicely from this point the market will become a CLASS SELL within 3-4 days. If it was to head down smoothly, not a huge dump, then it would become a CLASS BUY in about 3-4 days. The futures are up right now so it is giving the hint that we could see the market upswing from here. I see the maximum height of this possible short-term upswing in the 8685-8750 range with a maximum of 8850. If we do not cross 8850 then we will still be in the LOWER HIGH senerio, which would still imply LOWER LOWS in the future. Maybe Im wrong but for me to see a strong reversal to the upside which would create higher highs, I would need alot, of technical confirmations. I see a runup to the 8600-8800 range and then another retest of the lows at the 8350 range within 2-3 weeks Seeya.