To: Geoff Nunn who wrote (57799 ) 8/12/1998 1:20:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Geoff- Thanks for your post. Since I have "only" been observing the PC industry since beginning of the year, I look at this industry a bit differently than some on the thread.... Since I've been observing the industry, I have been totally unimpressed with HP and especially their CEO Lew Platt....I saw him (on TV) being interviewed in May, and was left shaking my head with his answers, his (lack of demonstrated) leadership, and vision about his company and the industry...Having said this, I am student (like us all) of business history....I am well-aware of HP's storied past, their many years of "most admired" company status, their fantastic early 90's results, and I even own one of their printers...Lew Platt obviously deserves part of the credit (for the past) However, as of late, Lew Platt (and HP) are reminding me of a great athlete in decline....blaming everyone and everything for a lack of performance and an erosion of skills, while not looking at one's self for the answers.....To a much lesser extent, CPQ's management has not performed well either (publicly) this year.......I am amazed at the amount of "slack" that the investment community has cut both of these companies (based on their histories).....They remain (probably) as highly recommended than Dell (perhaps more) by the analysts (the "so-called" experts)....This, I can't understand. Having a long memory (when investing in tech stocks) is not necessarily an advantage. Trends can emerge quickly, and watershed events (like Dell's capitalizing on J-I-T, B-T-O) can render the tech goliaths impotent or weakened in a relatively short time...... Many (investors) do not/can not cut their losses when necessary, hanging on forever to the glory days.........Although I think CPQ will turn out a be a good investment for those who hold for a while....I have starting to have my doubts about HP.........(Note: I am not long either)... BTW- What are your thoughts about a possible Chinese devaluation? I can't see it happening; The Chinese would not really benefit from it....export sales (believe it or not) are not as crucial to overall Chinese GNP growth (as for Asian countries)....and they (the Chinese) know that if they devalue, so will everyone else, so the relative advantage would not really be worth anything....They are loaded with reserves to defend the currency...and since it is not fully convertable anyway...it could only be attacked thru the HK dollar peg....so, the same type of pressure (from speculators) does not quite exist.....Your thoughts?