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To: Big Dog who wrote (1297)	8/12/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 1956

Year 2000 problem underestimated 'Everybody is behind,' consulting group says By Brenon Daly, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 1:11 PM ET Aug 12, 1998Also see NewsWatch NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- With just more than 500 days before arrival of the Year 2000, virtually no U.S. companies have done enough to make sure their computer systems will work after the change of the millennium. So says a New York consulting group. "Everybody is behind," said Howard Rubin, a consultant at New York-based Cap Gemini America. "And the bottom line is that the (Year 2000 issues) are transitioning from a technological impact to a business impact." Rubin cited a recent study that reported about 55 percent of businesses don't want to deal with vendors or suppliers that haven't smashed the millennium bug. The Year 2000 bug (or "YTK" problem) stems from the fact that many software programmers left off the the first two digits of a year. Therefore, once the calendar rolls to Jan. 1, 2000, many computers will read the date as Jan. 1, 1900. This glitch can cause havoc in automated systems. Assembly lines could grind to a halt. ATMs may not be able to dispense cash. Estimates of the cost of ironing out all the problem range from about $100 billion to $700 billion. Although the problem is widespread, the public companies trying to fix the glitches have faced varying fortunes. By and large, the service-oriented companies -- such as Ciber (CBR) and Keane (KEA) -- have held up much better than companies offering software tools to fix the glitches. Consider that tool-makers Accelr8 (ACLY), Crystal Systems (CRYSF), Zitel (ZITL), Viasoft (VIAS) and Seec (SEEC) are all trading within a few points of 52-week lows. In some cases, shares currently change hands at just one-sixth the highs they reached over the past 12 months. "The market is now aware there is no magic tool to fix all the problems," Rubin said. At this point, Rubin said software companies, financial institutions and computer makers are the sectors that are best prepared for the coming turn of the century. In a test earlier this week, 28 of the major securities firms cleared 99 percent of fictitious trades set for Jan. 3, 2000. That has lead to charges that the Year 2000 issue -- and the cottage industry that has sprung up around it -- has been vastly overblown. The more dire the problem appears, the reasoning goes, the more of a need for consultants, such as Cap Gemini. "This is not fear-mongering," consultant Rubin said. "The risks are real and some companies are putting 30 percent of their technology budget" toward fixing the problems.