To: Steve Fancy who wrote (6558 ) 8/12/1998 12:54:00 PM From: Steve Fancy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22640
Emerging Mkts ADRs: Short-Lived Rally Seen; Short-Covering Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- With the global roller-coaster still in motion, emerging market shares trading as American depositary receipts were on the upswing Wednesday morning, as calmer markets in Asia allowed them to rebound from steep losses suffered in the previous session. However, market participants were quick to say they expect the rise to be short-lived. "There's some panic buying, some short-covering, but the rally won't last," a trader projected. "Maybe we're already at the higher end of trading range." The culprits of Tuesday's plunge - a weak yen which investors fear might force China to devaluate its currency, coupled with concern about Russia - caused some percentage losses in Latin and Asian ADRs measured in double digits, with Brazilian shares falling an average 4%. "These markets are shell-shocked, and in Latin America there's no liquidity, so moves are absolutely more exaggerated than in the U.S.," a trader said, noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just 1.3% Tuesday. "But when you net it all (rises and falls in emerging markets), these markets still look under pressure." "It goes to show that no man is an island," an emerging market strategist added. At 1450 GMT, emerging market bellwether Telebras was up 15/16 to $98 1/2, still with some gaining to do before recovering Tuesday's loss of 4 13/16. HOLDRs, the synthetic Telebras ADR, were up 5/8 at $99. Traders said that they're watching the yen-dollar exchange rates more closely than the Mexican peso, which has come under pressure this week, and which weakened to 9.2100 per dollar in early trading, from 9.1870 Tuesday. "The yen is driving everything right now," a dealer said. Grupo IMSA and Maseca, two food producers with spectacular 18.8% and 10.3% tumbles Tuesday respectively, were trying to recover lost ground. At 1520 GMT, IMSA advanced 1.3% to $8 3/4, while Maseca rose 3.5% to $9 3/8. But traders said that most investor interest in Mexican ADRs was centered on its benchmark Telmex. "All the volume is there," a trader said. At 1515 GMT Telmex rose 2.6% to $43 15/16. They added that the rebound in Asian shares is based on very thin trading and that it lacks fundamental support. "A lot of people are still very apprehensive about what's gonna happen," a dealer said. "If the Bank of Japan intervenes (to support the yen) it won't have same effect as last time, because people are not as short. And if you look, we're right back where we were when they intervened two months ago." At 1540 GMT the dollar was quoted at Y146.01. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia was up 2.4% at $5 5/16, while Asia Pulp & Paper advanced 2.8% to $6 15/16. Korean ADRs were solidly higher, with Pohang Iron & Steel up 5% to $11 7/16 and SK Telecom advancing 3.8% to $6 7/8. "Korea has a little bit more of their act together, but if the dollar continues to 150 (yen) or more, it's going to hurt their exports," the trader said, adding that the rally in Asia would not survive the session overnight if the U.S. or Japan don't intervene to prop up the Japanese currency. -By Margarita Palatnik; 201-938-2226; margarita.palatnik@cor.dowjones.com