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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57890)	8/12/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: Frank Ellis Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Perhaps you believe that YHOO and AMAZON deserve the attraction they are getting over DELL Frank

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57890)	8/12/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

There you go again William. My projection for this quarter over last quarter shows an acceleration in revenue and earnings growth. You are taking my statement in one way only. DELL Q2 YOY growth rates as follows: Profit 70%(est98) 91%(97) Revenue 54% (est 98) 66%(97) These YOY growth rates are lower than the preceeding year but they are still enormous. Sequentially for Q2 we should have the following: Profit 25% Revenue 18% The sequential profit for Q1 was: Profit 7% Revenue 8% Thus, the sequential earning and revenue growth rates are accelerating with this quarters earnings. Now this is one of the weakest quarters seasonally for DELL. What do you think will happen to DELL's revenue and earning in the next two quarters? Remember, William that we are talking percentages and the numbers we ultimately want to look at are the actual cash profits generated from the revenues. DELL is a much larger company this year. A forward P/E of 70 would give a PEG of 1. So, IMO you are wrong about valuation. I suspect you will be eating deflocked crow by January 1999.

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57890)	8/12/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 176387

William,..Re:<< Dell is a great company, but I don't understand why people can't recognize the basic fact that the stock price has already far outstripped actual growth rates.>> And what premium might one add to Dell's price for earnings consistency? Might Dell not be rewarded in the same way as KO for never disappointing loyal investors? Even if revenue growth rate declined over the last two quarters, what does this mean in the overall market environment where some can't even manage currency risks let alone the Asian problems? Do you think that historical methods of valuation apply (to the letter) for outstanding growth in a low rate, low inflation environment? And how does Dell's performance fit in with companies which can't manage currency risks and have high exposure to Asia? And finally, is there no premium applied to a company which is growing at 80+% in Europe, 74+% in the US and has managed to tie with last year's no. 1 PC vendor in this country? And doing all this in an environment where the second largest economy in the world is in a recession? Regards, Lee

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57890)	8/12/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

William, let's analyze the numbers, shall we. According to WSRN, eps from 1993 through 1998 inclusive were: .17, -.07, .20, .34, .69, 1.28 respectively. For the five year horizon, eps growth averaged 49.7% , and for the last three years (96 through 98) growth was 70%, 103% and 86% year over year. It seems to me based on these data that there is no factual basis for your comment. You should also be cognizant of the fact that time series like these are seldom smooth, and it is a great mistake to infer lasting structural changes based on one or two data points. So yes, last year's growth of 86% was less than the preceding year's growth (103%), but higher than the penultimate year's grow of 70%. Let me illustrate how susceptible these conclusions are to the timing of revenue recognition. Suppose two cents of earnings in 1997 had been shifted to 1996, so that the earnings were now .36, .67 and 1.28. Now we would have sequential growth of 80%, 86% and 91%. TTFN, CTC