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To: Robert Morris who wrote (15783)	8/12/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: G.T.	Respond to of 116790

History Lesson Robert, one thing I will never be accused of is not learning and being prepared from the lessons of the past. Never have the North American markets been at such historical over valuations. Even with the growing economic slowdown the market continues to hold on. The attitude of todays investor is the same as in past market manias. Don't believe me, do your own studying by going to your local library and reading about the markets from 1929 and 1968 in the United States to Japan in 1989 and Hong Kong last year. Investors of the time all agreed that they were in the markets to make money and with so many people in the markets could not go down. Not to many people today are telling people to invest in HK but you could hardly find any one who was not one or two years ago. Today they continue to tell people to keep pouring their money into the markets. The Dow will drop back to book value now at 1,500 the market has always come back below book value in times of economic calamity. All the seeds have been sown and they are now sprouting. The mantra continues in for the long haul market only goes up. The pending bear market will be anything but normal. Write this down the Dow will drop at least 1,000 points in one day, in fact technically it could drop 30% in one day with the trading halts now at 10%, 20% and 30% before the market shuts down for the day. The current investor is still confident but when the sudden drop hits that mantra will be broken and panic will set in. It always has, that's human nature and markets cycle on different levels of fear and greed. T-Bills and Bonds may only return 5% but at the end of the day one will have 100% of their wealth as apposed to 50% to 90% wealth depreciation.

To: Robert Morris who wrote (15783)	8/12/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Pete Young	Respond to of 116790

In the Great Depression period of October, l929, to December, l935, a $10,000 investment in shares of Homestake Mining soared 620% to $62,000, while contemporary investors saw their $10,000 investment in the DJIA plummet 64% to $3,600! The time has arrived for wise and patient contrarians to take heart--History 101 is about to be repeated for those who failed it the first time around. Don't mean to be a bummer, but wouldn't Roosevelt's fiat revaluation of gold from ~$20 to $35 during the same time have something to do with it? Read about it in Galbraith's "The Great Crash" amazon.com