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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oracle who wrote (6580)	8/12/1998 7:49:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Well Oracle, who the heck knows anymore. The stock is waaaay oversold and today was the 9th straight day of downside for TBR and the Bovespa. TBR is down what, 30% from its high two weeks ago. My glasses are rose colored, but I'm looking for a reversal tomorrow. Hope to see an up day on the part of the DOW, helped out perhaps by the retail sales report tomorrow morning. Based on the retailer numbers, this report oughta be strong. Noorstroms reported 5 cents above tonight, and Kmart comes out in the morning...expected to be equally strong. Also, Abby Cohn(sp) the big market bull has apparently scheduled an early morning intra-company meeting, where it was suggested by CNBC she may reiterate her bullish market positions. I also expect some settling from Russia over the next few days. I notice currently futures are down and the Yen has reversed into negative territory. Maybe we'll see some kind of surprise intervention overnight again. Back to TBR, I've seen speculation on other chat boards of $80-$85 as a low...just don't see it. Then again though, I sure as H*ll never saw this coming either. I have all but given up on August options also, the stock could surprise us yet though. One thing for sure, it tends to have a mind of its own, and go against the crowd. I figure everyone has their short positions locked in now, so maybe the stock will do it to 'em. Can't imagine remaining shorts from weeks ago will wait much longer to cover either. I'd like to think, if further downside, it'll be an intraday bounce off of 89-92. Good call on the short position! Glad someone's making money on this horror story. Thought about shorting over the last day or so, but generally, as soon as a trend becomes obvious, it goes away. Plan on picking up a few more cheap October options also, but holding off just in case. Besides the irony I pointed out upthread with Asia ADR's maintaining their upside today, the one question that stands out in my mind is what happens if China did devalue? Would TBR go up in some kind of insane relief rally? The investment community now has what I consider a 35-50% devaluation built in. The split up will certainly add to the confusion...hopefully for the better for once. Hope the dust settles soon. Good luck Oracle, sf