Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (5469)	8/12/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 9719

Well guys, I'm back from my vacation to find someone's been trashing the market in my absence. I'm not sure which is more scary - the plight of some biotechs, our hairy Paris taxi ride to the airport (visions of Diana) or a somewhat too close encounter with some lions in a South African game park at night. One concern is that we may get a kind of death spiral, with each fund manager not wanting to be the last to leave town. This would certainly produce some luscious values, but most of us won't have the cash to enjoy them. On the up side, I suspect we may well see some M&A activity. If this is horizontal it may not do much for the individual stocks or the market (like AXPH), but if it comes from above (Merck etc.) then it may do wonders. One key area to watch are the biotechs who have sales but still have very weak stock prices (like AGPH, NXTR, SEQU, PGNS, PDLI). Some of these (like the first three) would clearly be accretive to a big pharma, even at a considerable premium. As for what strategy to adopt, I would stay away from anything that is going to need finance within a year or so to survive. (Most biotechs aren't in bad shape capital wise, actually). I don't think the early stage companies are going to move before the late stage ones in general, and so I'd tilt towards the sort of companies that Jim Silverman likes - stuff like PGNS, MLNM and SEPR (of course). I personally have stayed somewhat hedged, which up to now has been fortunate. I remain very bullish on SEPR, and have obstinately stuck with my PCYC. I also own some Rick-type companies like BTRN - good science, trading near cash. I've taken some profits in MOGN, but still own it. Today was actually a pretty good one for most biotechs. Hope it continues that way. Peter

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (5469)	8/13/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Cytokine1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

VD's MODEL PORTFOLIO 8/13/98 Change -$618 DOWN -0.36% Started 4/9/97, $100K . INDEX ^IXB DOWN -1.70% YTD EQUITY CHANGE 3.7% # CURRENT DAILY CURRENT COST TOTAL %GAIN/ % OF SYMBOL SHRS PRICE CHANGE %CHG VALUE SHR COST LOSS TOTAL ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= CLTR 1000 25.00 -0.75 -2.91% 25000 10.88 10875 129.9% 13.6% SEPR 272 58.63 0.56 0.97% 15946 37.55 10214 56.1% 8.7% GENZ 830 29.63 -0.63 -2.07% 24589 25.17 20893 17.7% 13.4% INCY 1000 32.63 -0.75 -2.25% 32625 29.41 29409 10.9% 17.8% AVIR 737 26.25 -1.06 -3.89% 19346 27.88 20544 -5.8% 10.6% DURA 200 23.50 -0.56 -2.34% 4700 24.63 4925 -4.6% 2.6% AGPH 300 23.88 0.25 1.06% 7163 26.00 7800 -8.2% 3.9% MOGN 2000 6.38 0.13 2.00% 12750 7.00 14000 -8.9% 7.0% MLNM 300 14.44 -0.31 -2.12% 4331 18.63 5588 -22.5% 2.4% GZTC 2000 6.56 0.56 9.38% 13125 7.737 15475 -15.2% 7.2% ABSC 2000 6.13 0.38 6.52% 12250 8.735 17470 -29.9% 6.7% LGNDW 3000 3.81 -0.19 -4.69% 11438 8.75 26250 -56.4% 6.2% ENMD -400 25.63 -1.50 -5.53% -10250 34.06 -13625 24.8% STOCK ______ ______ ______ ______ 173012 169817 1.9% 100.0% SHORT SALE CREDIT ______ ______ 13625 MARGIN MTCE. EQUITY 49.0% MIN 30% (91670) BUYING POWER $ ______ -6954 EQUITY (NAV) ______ ______ ______ 94967 100000 -5.0% ^IXB INDEX 303.93 -5.27 -1.70% 302.42 0.5%