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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (62391)	8/12/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Fred Fahmy	Respond to of 186894

John, If they want to make sure they don't get stuck without supply, it is as much the responsibility of the Dell's, Gateway's, Compaq's of the world to get their forecasts in line. Intel doesn't want to carry unnecessary inventory any more than the box makers. The box makers can't expect Intel to act like a faucet that they can turn on and off. When everyone along the supply line is using JIT, forecasting becomes a shared responsibility between suppliers and buyers. < I wouldn't want the job of putting together those numbers, and having the revenue/profit of the company depend on my suppositions.> I did this for our division (approx 500 mil revenue) for volumes and revenue for 6 years before returning to engineering recently. I didn't have profit responsibility. The tech industry is dynamic and you are very correct in stating that forecasting is more of an art the science. Lots of things to consider and there is no substitute for experience. I enjoyed it while I did it but after we went public it became a pain because things we did quarterly were requested every month. Too much churning.....it got old after a while. FF

To: Road Walker who wrote (62391)	8/13/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

John, >>>Yet, when they report Q's, they always seem to be relatively close, three months before the fact. <<< Close is not good enough in this league. They have to step up to the next level - the Microsoft level - where they come up with a number and then convince everyone that it is lower and then beat (by just enough to make everyone happy) the beaten down forecasts. That is more management than art or science - something that you can't define, but you know it when you see it. That is when you reach billionaire status as opposed to just being in the several hundred million dollar status. (an aside to Mr. Craig Barrett - that is the way they keep score in this league). Mary