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To: Gameboy who wrote (27605)	8/13/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 95453

>>Also, from EIA (US Dept of Energy) released Aug 10th: eia.doe.gov a graph that shows forecasting the price of crude oil could take several paths (sorry, none go to $8.50).<< Gameboy, FYI, I have never shorted any oil-related stocks or futures, and I have no desire to see oil go to $8.50 a barrel. I think oil is likely to remain in the $11.00-$14.00 range for the next year, and I tend to agree with those who say oil-service stocks will now base in a trading range. As I posted earlier, NOESIS indicates that factors such as significant U.S. purchase of oil for the NPR could result in an upgrade of the forecast for a dip to $8.50/barrel. Here is the context behind the NOESIS forecast: Readers should remember that forecasts are projected based on current data. In other words, if all else remains the same, the price "will do this." However, from past experience we know that decision makers use forecasts to adjust their operations. NOESIS has readers from all of the major oil companies and most of the major crude oil producing countries around the world. We hope that each reader will consider our forecast as they develop their strategies. Obviously, if any or all of those companies and countries change their operating strategies, the NOESIS forecast will no longer be accurate. Therefore, from time to time NOESIS will update the forecast based on new information.

To: Gameboy who wrote (27605)	8/13/1998 2:03:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 95453

>>You've raised a valid point "Why are Reuters, the WSJ, and the market taking this information so seriously?" - that is, information from the IEA - without qualifying it by mentioning the IEA track record of presenting a worst case scenario.<< Gameboy, Didn't you recently predict on this thread that oil was on its way to $17/barrel this fall or winter? Both EIA and IEA are forecasting a long-lasting glut, with OPEC's target of $17/barrel nowhere in sight. I challenge you to provide a web link for any reputable source who still predicts that oil will reach $17/barrel this year. The recent IEA report about poor OPEC compliance in July is a public relations DISASTER for the cartel. Here's how I see it: 1) If the IEA data is wrong, OPEC should correct it in a strong press release. 2) If the IEA data is correct, then OPEC should knuckle down and make sure that every single member meets its target in August. Either way, the ball is in OPEC's court. -Greg

To: Gameboy who wrote (27605)	8/13/1998 2:43:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>>I concur except if I were OPEC I'd hold out for 10 days. An immediate injunction on all shipments - screw the contracts, screw the commitments, etc. because as it is OPEC is incurring disastrous ruin which calls for drastic action. Scratch 300 million barrels. If that didn't work, try another 10 days and another 300 million barrels.<< Do you any idea how utterly ridiculous you sound? The Spice Girls are more organized than these guys. OPEC can barely implement minor cuts, let alone conduct an embargo. Oil traders would die laughing if they tried it. Get real. >>Wouldn't life be a lot rosier for OPEC with oil at $22/barrel even after 20 days of no revenue?<< Have you stopped to consider the implications of $22 oil for the world economy, given the strong U.S. dollar and desperate economic conditions in Asia? Do you really think the demand exists for high-priced oil? -Greg