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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6772)	8/13/1998 6:50:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Marc: Re: " Justa, wonder what you thought of holding AMAT, KLAC and NVLS after that dismal AMAT conference call with no visibility. I'm not looking to trade them but hold them for the upturn which now I have no feel for when it may come." These stocks beg to be traded and I don't want to disappoint them <g>. It sounds like you are facing the same temptation. An easy answer is to do both. When I get shares at alow price, I put them away. Others I will trade for a quick buck especially in this environment. I do not view these stocks as long term holdings (more than a few years) with the exception of AMAT. One thing you should understand about visibility is this sector is that there is frequently none. Morgan did not have visibility in November of 1996 before the 1997 turnaround when he said: "Looking forward, we believe the industry downturn could extend through the early part of 1997, with the last half of 1997 still uncertain." So having no visibility in a down cycle does not necessarily mean a continuation of the current trend because of the lack of visibility. It also means that you are clueless as to when the upturn will occur. It might begin tomorrow, or next week, or next month, or next year. With that said, I do not see a sudden turnaround or a "V' shaped recovery here at this time. Ask me again next week <g>. You will get a slow "U" shaped recovery IMO as SEA companies have trouble getting financing for new equipment. My view is subject to change <g>.