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To: Tom who wrote (2078)	8/12/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: cardcounter	Respond to of 2951

I agree that russia, in and of itself, won't have a noticeable direct effect on the US markets, but I am concerned to the extent that a ruble devaluation will exacerbate the emerging market confidence crisis. Latin american stock exchanges reflected this sensitivity today. Thankfully, Japan closed positively today and the yen hovered around 146.x (or so it was the last time I checked). If russia falls, then how far away will china and other emerging countries' devaluations be (at best their equity/debt markets get trashed). It would be rather presumptious for us to say that american markets have already discounted such events in that we don't really know what the full extent of another wave of devals would be.. For example, were Russia to devalue, then german banks would get hit, perhaps that would effect other parts of germany if liquidity sources were to dry up...etc. Its hard to gauge these spillover effects since they aren't just limited to fundamentals Finally, should russia devalue, it would send a clear signal to other distressed nations that the IMF, G-7, unilateral benefactors, and US treasury's currency stabilization fund would no longer be disbursing good money after bad.. surely that would shake investors confidence even more....