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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Stress who wrote (6760)	8/13/1998 12:03:00 AM
From: Will Hou	Respond to of 8545

<<CKFR is WAY oversold. It should go easily back to $17 short term (maybe tomorrow). imo >> Here's a simple calculation based on recent interview / forecast (http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5482196): if next year's earning has dropped to .12 to .16 vs previous .32, keep same PE, we should see 23.75*(.14)/(.32)=10.39 Here I used previous day close, and mid-point for next year earning. Of course, if you want to get fancy, you can always consider growth rate such as PEG model, which would likely to bring the "fair" price down further (consider same PEG number, lower growth number means lower PE...)

To: Mr. Stress who wrote (6760)	8/13/1998 12:09:00 AM
From: g_m10	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8545

CheckFree simply underestimated the effect of mergers and the speed with which banks would replace their old PC banking systems, Kight said. "I spend way too damn much time on the road and way too much time with these banks, in my opinion, to have been that far off," Kight said. "I am the closest to the banks. I'm the closest to being able to know what it is they're doing, what kind of schedules they're on. I'm the one who has taken the lead in trying to drive them to the Net. "I just didn't expect all of them to do it at the same damn time." Brian Maimone, an analyst with ING Barings Furman Selz, agreed with Kight's assessment, but believes investors overreacted. Although CheckFree's growth is hampered until banks finish their transition to the Internet, "it's a nice problem to have," Maimone said. "The long-term outlook is actually quite positive." Company executives have no control over how banks adopt technology platforms, but once institutions are on the Internet, CheckFree will be in a solid position, Maimone said. The company is already the market leader in electronic bill payment, with 70 percent to 75 percent of the market, he said. The company's revised expectation is actually cautious, Kight said. "It doesn't reflect four banks that tell us they're going to be in market this calendar year," he said. "I'm not doing this again. I'm not doing another recalibration [sic], so we've taken a very conservative stance." techweb.com:80/investor/story/INV19980812S0006

To: Mr. Stress who wrote (6760)	8/13/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: Cymeed	Respond to of 8545

<<< CKFR is WAY oversold. It should go easily back to $17 short term (maybe tomorrow). imo >>> Agree. CKFR was probably over bought before this news release due to all the optimistic views and all the strong buy ratings etc. What goes to the extreme of the top comes down to the other extreme of the bottom. What we are seeing here now is way over reaction and over punishment. Based on its promising future and the fact it is in the black now, I would say this stock is worth in the $18 area, by picking up a number from the sky :o)But don't know when. Pete Kight tried to correct the mistake he made early and go conservative this time. But this itself caused tons of kneejerk reaction. People have been expecting great news, including me. I would say CKFR will probably stay in the teens for the rest of 1998 and must be a great stock in 99 !