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To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6635)8/13/1998 7:54:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10921
 
ASIA AGAIN! :(

I've just waded through ten or twelve articles about Asia, and the news is all bad. Common sentiment is that Japan blew a big chance when it failed to capitalize on the US support of the yen. There is some doubt as to whether the US will be willing to join another prop-up Blitzkrieg on speculators, or whether Japan and the US acting in concert can successfully prop it up. On top of this, China's threats to devalue the yuan are becoming more frequent, and a top trader predicted a move in late 98 or early 99. Deflation is a big problem in China right now, although the Chinese economy appears relatively healthy.

I don't see how long HK, China and Taiwan can hold out against the political pressure from their export-oriented industries.

Russia, of course, is the current poster child for second-world economic woes.

I do not agree with various posts, to the effect that a sector recovery in two years is a certainty. A lot of people are really worried about Asia driving a longer-term global recession. The question is, at what point will the US, China and others get so fed up with Japan that they will decide just to take their chances and let Japan taste the fruits of its decision-making.