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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oracle who wrote (6603)	8/13/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: MGV	Respond to of 22640

84 - this is my guess for a low today 74 - Friday ? TBR hit a low of 83 last October when the first big wave of the "Asian Crisis" hit. Part of the reason it fell to that low was based on the concern that Brazil would be unable to avert a currency crisis spawned in Asia. When it was successful, the share price responded. This year, there is expressed confidence by a number of int'l economists that Brazil is in much better shape to weather a currency storm. Moreover, the fundamentals of the tBR assets have only improved. Based on the above, I don't think we likely will see 74. The only way would be if the currency dominos staretd falling, the real came under attack, and the GOB failed to stave it off this time. If all of that happened, then it hits 74. Short term, I think the resistance will come at 88-89. That said, I've learned over and over (and over!) again that picking short term price movements is a fool's game. Almost anytime I've done it I've been off. But the salvation is that long term I've been right 3 out of 4 times and TBR is as compelling a long term buy as I can remember since Merck at 28 (split adjusted about 9) in 1993.