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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fut_trade who wrote (1346)	8/15/1998 5:06:00 AM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

peter i do agree with you that japan is in dire straits; but i also think that their recently INCREASING trade surplus tells us that their exporters are still alive and doing well; do not tell me that sony honda toyota and matshushita are not world class companies; i bet you that in the next 1-2 mos obuchi will compromise with the DPJ and produce a stronger bank bill,they will cut taxes and start deregulatiion of the telecom industry next spring; the DPJ is now as strong as the LDP creating the first 2 party system since WW2; the DPJ will likely allay themselves with other factions producing a broad coalition of groups to counter the rigidity of LDP-in fact this has already happened; this is the bottom although the dithering by LDP will slow the process-but it will happen; over here in europe while on vacation i still see lots of japanese tourists-reflecting a still relatively strong economy beset by political problems and inefficient bureacracies; remember that at the height of our bank problems citicorp was selling for around the same price as MBK and we were written off as an economic basket case curtis

To: fut_trade who wrote (1346)	8/16/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

<<China coming on line over the next five years, Japan will not be able to power her way out of this one.>> Not 100% sure of that one. Definitely China will become a major presence in next 5 years. Definitely Japan has major problems. But China has major problems of its own, many of which are being skipped past or held in check by authoritarian gov't. They will have a reckoning of their own somewhere down the pipe. And if Japan gets their act together in terms of financial administration, they will find that they still have the basic tools to compete. Yes, the last round of Japanese innovations have been successfully duplicated. Assuming this crisis eventually wakes some people up, who's to say they can't come up with a new round of innovations? Let's hope... Steve