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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (24190)	8/13/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi I2: I don't know if it would be by industry or sector alone. However, there are some industries and sectors that clearly would qualify as being in a bear market using the Sign of the Bear, eg. OSX, DJT, SOX (close), Biotech, and XOI (close also). (I did this by the squinting eyeball method.) Another way of looking at possible bear markets may be by capitalization. That would be the DJI, OEX, SPX, Supercaps, NDX, etc. versus the RUT and the NASDAQ Composite. That is not perfectly clean but it will do. However, when you take a look at these indices they all appear to be in their initial step down (if they are in bear markets). That surprised me. If these indices are not in bear markets, these declines may be a correction. Once a rally from a base starts, we can see whether it retraces 50 percent of the initial decline, whether the rally sets new highs, or whether the rally fails and sets new lows. A failed rally with new lows would probably signal a general bear market. Time is not of the essence in forming a trading position. Take a look at January 1973 then look at the end of 1973. If my memory serves me, the end of 1973 nearly set new highs. Of course, everything went in the toilet in 1974. If a rally sets new highs, that is fine also. It doesn't matter to me which wagon I climb on board as long as I can find something to feed on. P. S. I am still waiting for VRC at between $5 and $7 and still very hopeful.