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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: joe who wrote (20546)	8/13/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

first..... i've given reasons in the past..... which you immediately discounted......so i quit doing it.... i'm not going to do the work and then get flamed for it by someone like you.....and then have to spend time in a totally unproductive trading of postings..... second.......hey.....if crawford can use thread posts as a contrarian indicator....it's good enough for me..... third...........you just aren't seeing the big picture.....which is that individual stocks don't count for very much (with or without their merits).......... this is a case of larger context not small pictures.....although a bear market and a recessionary economy would not help 3com AT ALL.....it would in fact compound their previous problems.... additionally..............I doubt very seriously any company can see past december (at best) right now in their published projections.....which all things being considered...... are more likely to be revised downward than upward..... spikes of positivism right now lead only to bull traps more than investment in a value play........ analysts have not yet faced the job of evaluating their 1999 earnings forecasts....at best they've dealt with the remainder of 1988. Regarding this BS about interest rates cannot be low in a bear market or a recession..... absolutely untrue.... interest rates....if the fed wants a soft landing in a recession...must stay where they are if not lower.... but....if interest rates are brought low....you see a declining dollar causing inflationary tendancies in addition to the risk of fleeing captial from US market as a falling dollar devalues those foreign held assets.... if interest rates rise.....you get a stronger dollar.....further declines in exports.......further heightened impact on margins, lower profit rates, lower earnings estimates....and you help destroy asian money markets once again......post the up coming rouble devaluation.... all values are relative...... asia, CRB commodities index, oil, and yen...for examples....have returned to 10 year ago levels.... if you then assume all markets will align backward.....allow for a time value of money appreaciation of capital (a premium to the worth of US Assets)....then you might moderately assume a US pullback to seven year ago levels....add the preium...and make a pull back target of say 6500 to 7000 baring some collapse such as in our real estate markets, loan default rates and other such things..........not to mention a crisis in confidence in regard to general sentiment.... my list could go on fairly endlessly at the moment..... but I won't bore you with it...... but it is above all fair to say.........that a bear market and a recession are now considerably more likely than not likely.....and if you believe in conserving capital foremost before short term profits then cash is king.... addditionally, the saying that the market on average since 1929 has returned 10-15% .....does not account for periods when it not only returned nothing...but depreciated assets.... were you getting ready to retire tomorrow and had your retirement stash in the US Market at these levels.....and saw your money sliced by 40%....and you additionally had to wait 2-6 years before you reached break even again...............then the average return on this market since 1929 would have little meaning for you other than the great depression you would be suffering........... confidence about return on equities is good in context....but carte blanche...is a dangerous way to approach growing capital to serve long term goals..... just a few thoughts........... Joel