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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WebDrone who wrote (16604)	8/13/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: David Semoreson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

What is the maximum price we can see next year? We could see $3 EPS but eventually they will need to begin paying taxes again so perhaps $2 EPS after tax is a fair adjusted number. How high a price does this justify? How much higher than 20 P/E can AAPL get in this market? IMO they need to grow market share like crazy to impress the Street, and this is not a given. These are the honest questions that worry me. I've been a bull since 97 and done my share of cheerleading when the downside was limited and the upside was triple, but I'm on the sidelines now since $37. If the market will give me some old-fashioned AAPL bashing I'll be back. Best of luck to all, ** David

To: WebDrone who wrote (16604)	8/13/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

"I can see the potential for troubles this Q, but Q4 looks like a total slam dunk." Everyone has to remember that we're not the only ones who think this way. Analyst estimates are not always a good relative indicator for how the stock will react post-earnings. Q2 was a good example. Blowing away the estimate was met with a short stock price bubble that was almost immediately burst. Problem was, EVERYONE knew AAPL would blow those estimates away. No surprise, no reward. Q3, on the other hand, was met was a good deal of skepticism. Will the coming iMac hurt current sales? What about the Powerbook supply problems? Even the bulls on this board would post messages about hand-wringing on the quarterly number. Surprise surprise, then, that when the number killed estimates the stock blew skyward. Therefore, I'm gleeful when I read more hand-wringing about the upcoming quarter. This is not because I know something no one else does. It means that a favorable earnings surprise may not have been priced in to the stock already like it was for Q2. Q4, on the other hand, with terms like "slam dunk" leaves less room for error and more for downside surprise relative not to "analyst projections" but to real-world investor expectations. Andrew