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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spaw who wrote (52006)	8/13/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

Additionally, from a technical standpoint, ASND broke its ascending trendline on July 31 and has been unable to move back into the channel. It is in a sideways to down(trend) now. spaw, I guess this is one of the problems i've always had with technical analysis. The July 31 drop was obviously due to the SRA news. And since then, the Nasdaq is down about 5%, and ASND is up 5-10%. Please explain how this trend is down, and why its now a good short candidate. What target would you be looking for on a short?

To: Spaw who wrote (52006)	8/13/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Today the AMEX MMs bought 1000 Dec. 50 puts and sold 1000 Dec.50 calls. That is a bearish trade and the MMs are usually right. Also, there is heavy action in the Sept. 40 puts: over 4000 traded. Hi Spaw, Re - the 1000 Dec call/put; the max gain for the "straddle" is Asnd $50 on 12/98; with $62 and $38 respectively as the Top/bottom risk. This represents only 100K shares, not necessarily bearish?? Re - the Sept 40 puts, a corresponding number of Jan 2000 30 puts was written; both opened yesterday. The premium paid for the Sept. puts was 13/16, and the premium received for the Jan 30 was $2 3/8. This may just be a "no cost" conservative hedging. I am long Asnd, please feel free to comment.

To: Spaw who wrote (52006)	8/13/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: ibrandybuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

I see the activity in the Dec50 calls. I don't see it in the Dec50 puts. What is your reason for assuming it is bearish, rather than bullish? The Sept40 put action was yesterday and was accompanied by Jan30 2000 puts, suggesting a bullish someone is buying short term insurance, financing it by assuming longer term risk, and still managing to pocket a reasonable premium.

To: Spaw who wrote (52006)	8/14/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: Sonny	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

Spaw: I've also done all the micro-technical analysis of ASND in multiple time-frame models, with/and-without using conventional, neural-network and fuzzy-logic systems, in equity isolation and also market-parallel fashion, for a much longer time than I'm willing to admit. :-) I was almost coming to similar conclusions as yours, but 2 factors totally changed the level of significance of several variables in those equations. Briefly here, without going into too much details of the self-tuned, customized switchable-systems (selected by the meta-rule sets of an expert system in real time and for overnight analysis), those were OBV and elimination of news-noise-interrupt, from the 15-day (not 50) and 30-day (not 200, as everyone elses) trend lines. Summary: Things looked extremely bullish! (Exception Caveats: total capitulation of US markets and/or Abby joining Ralph's camp! :-) ) regards, -/Sonny.