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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (24208)	8/13/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 94695

Gotcha. Guess we kind of agree -- if the ball gets to rolling there will be a sustained move downward and economic impacts.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (24208)	8/13/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Actually, Jim, 25% down (to 7000) seems as natural a place to stop as 10% or 20%. If many people over the last few years just automatically jump back in when a correction hits the 10% mark, why is it so unlikely that we would make a bottom at -25%. Of course, if we get there next week, you would probably be right due to the shock, but I don't expect that. If we get there over the next few/several months, then I'll take a look at how bad the recession (we'd have to be in one fairly soon for 25% down, IMO) and earnings look, and what the prospects are for earnings in 2000 and beyond. If it looks like a reasonably mild recession, I'll be a bull again - selectively of course. JMO, Bob