To: AJ Berger who wrote (3694 ) 8/14/1998 1:52:00 AM From: Martin E. Frankel Respond to of 44908
AJ, Thanks for the interesting post. It seems that every analyst has some formula they use to come up with a valuation on the stocks they follow... that's what they get paid for. As regards Mr. Harmon's formula for internet related stocks, IMHO, it does not directly pertain to TSIG for the simple reason that TSIG is not just an "internet" stock. As I (and others who have done DD on TSIG) have tried to point out, TSIG is an infant conglomerate of which the "internet" component is just one part. In contrast to the other CD sellers on the internet who are essentially one business companies (perhaps with the exception of Amazon.com because of the books they sell as well), TSIG has a huge telephony capability which many traders are paying no attention to... perhaps because it is not (at least right now) the sector du jour. This, IMO, will bring TSIG far more bottomline revenue over the course of a few years than the CCI website... as good and profitable as the latter may be especially with the musiccards strategy. So much emphasis is being placed on the CCI internet division, that little thought is being given to the huge potential of the telephony services... and the future acquisitions that will follow because of these services. I would not be surprised to find that many of the smaller, but profitable companies that outsource there telephony needs to TSIG (or see an advantage to doing so) are eventually acquired by TSIG. And if I read Rob Gordon right, they will be acquired in an all stock transaction with a floating price dependent upon the addition to TSIG's bottomline made by the acquired company... hence no dilution. This is just my opinion, AJ, but I am betting on it. Hence, IMHO, Harmon's formula or equation (or anyone elses for that matter) based upon "internet" stocks alone doesn't hold water as it relates to TSIG. IMO, the multiple will be far greater and/or the market cap will be far beyond many people's expectations... but more because of the growth of TSIG's top and bottomlines over a period of time. Sure, I'd like to see it happen by next month, but I'm a realist and know it won't. After I reached the ripe old age of 60, time seemed to move much faster, so I've got more patience now to let things work out. $5.00 is a nice number, but if I have to wait a few more years for TSIG to "growup" and get to $50.00+, I've got the patience. Each person will have to decide for themselves whether they want the quick "pop" or are willing to ride with TSIG until it reaches maturity. I've made my decision, and I don't know of any formula that has any value in determining the real price potential of a company as unique as TSIG. That's my opinion. Best always, Marty