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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (13482)	8/13/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Rob, I sold again @131 3/4; not nervous at all. Jan, I went long at 130 1/2. Got slughtered again:-(

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (13482)	8/13/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

Good for you. It may be rocky tomorrow or not. I think we had a "key reversal" today - an excellent intra-day chart pattern that fit nicely with the trend in the stock. My comfort level is quite high - about the only thing that can screw it up is if stupid shorts help the remaining bulls by panicking if we get a momentary rally. Bears shouldn't expect Amazon.com to crash to 70 anytime soon. It could happen if something serves as a catalyst but I don't expect it under "normal" conditions. AMZN will probably move down over the next couple of weeks to base for a while at the 105-110 level before it makes another attempt to rally or drops down off that level, IMO. The mid-term is harder for me to try to forecast than the short-term or long term. I believe that a large reason this last rally was nearly as strong as it was is because short sellers with itchy fingers had held onto their positions when it moved down to 100 before expecting AMZN to go all the way down to 50 or 70 before they covered. So when a normal technical re-bound occured, they panicked and bid the stock up as they covered. Nasty, nasty business when your fears take control of logic. At least the large overhang is now cleared out - whew! - that was a powder keg and it only took a relatively few bulls to light the fuse. Over four million shares covered in a few days - a lot of buying pressure was released. The over-head resistance should hold up to any assault that's likely. If the market tanks, AMZN may now have enough weakness to drop quickly. But I don't think a market rally will do much to help. The bulls will point out - "Gee, we have moved up x amount and only dropped a few bucks today - so what". "So what" is that the upward movement was not net buying but was largely covering of borrowed shares and even discounting that, the stock has faltered in trying to mount to previous highs. One or two more trading days will help to confirm the rally has been broken and make the technicals look even better. So let the bulls try to rally this sucker to even more outrageous levels. Since they weren't the ones buying before, I doubt they will have the strength to move it now. When they want to buy, sell. We may get a rally tomorrow, but I think it will end lower - I'll peg a target of 120-122 for the close.